St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Gibson. Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

MLB strikeout props for Sept. 20: Fade Gibson against Cleveland

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 9/20/24

After going on a 5-1 run in strikeout props, we fumbled the bag with a 1-5 run immediately after to fall back to 6-6 over the last four days. Let's get back on track with our three favorite K props for Friday's MLB slate.

Nick Martinez over 4.5 Ks (-105 DraftKings)

Pirates at Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET

Martinez is a below-average swing-and-miss pitcher, but he's on a nice run with 18 strikeouts over his last three starts. He went over this line in all three, and those starts came against tough lineups in the Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins. The Pittsburgh Pirates present a much easier matchup, as they have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against righties over the last week (29.3 percent). Martinez ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate this season, so this is a great matchup against a Pirates lineup which ranks 28th in MLB in chase contact rate.

Cristopher Sanchez under 5.5 Ks (-142 FanDuel)

Phillies at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET

Sanchez has gone over this line in four of his last five starts, but we think he'll come back to earth in a tough matchup against the New York Mets. The Philadelphia Phillies southpaw is elite at getting opposing hitters to chase out of the zone, but there aren't many teams seeing lefties better than the Mets right now. Over the last two weeks, the Mets have the third-lowest strikeout rate (16.3 percent) and the fourth-highest OPS (.876) and wRC+ (148) against left-handed pitching.

Kyle Gibson under 4.5 Ks (-105 DK)

Guardians at Cardinals, 8:15 p.m. ET

This line is too high. Gibson ranks in the 25th percentile in chase rate (26.3 percent) and the 37th percentile in strikeout rate (21.3 percent) this season, and he's always struggled to rack up Ks against this Cleveland Guardians lineup. Current Guardians hitters are batting .333 with a tiny 12.6 percent strikeout rate in 103 plate appearances against Gibson.

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