Our home run winners have dried up recently, but all it takes is one big day to get back in the groove. Let's hop back on the profit train with our three favorite home run bets for Wednesday's MLB slate.
Witt is swinging a hot bat right now. The Kansas City Royals star is batting .350 and slugging .600 with two home runs and 14 RBIs over the last 15 days, and this is a juicy matchup for one of the best hitters in MLB. Washington Nationals starter DJ Herz throws his 4-seam fastball a whopping 54.1 percent of the time, while Witt has a .747 xSLG and a 57.8 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season.
Burger is absolutely smoking the ball against right-handed pitching. The Miami Marlins slugger is batting .357 and slugging .714 with a 57.1 percent hard-hit rate against righties over the last two weeks. Simeon Woods Richardson isn't an easy matchup by any means, but he does throw his 4-seam fastball 40.3 percent of the time. That's great news for Burger, who has a .693 xSLG and a 66.7 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season.
Baker is a great home run target for Coors Field due to his 35.7 percent fly-ball rate and 60.7 percent hard-hit rate. The St. Louis Cardinals first baseman has struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but he's been crushing lefties with a team-leading .765 slugging percentage and 1.146 OPS. Colorado Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate (10.0 percent) this season, and he surrendered three homers in his most recent start at Coors Field.
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