Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (left) and guard Jaylen Brown (right). David Butler II-Imagn Images

NBA GM survey tips Celtics as third-biggest title favorites ever

By Sai Mohan | Last updated 10/9/24

The NBA is the most competitive it's been in 50 years, with the league crowning a new champion for a sixth consecutive season earlier this year. Only three teams have gone back-to-back since the Lakers dynasty of the early 2000s — Lakers (2009-10), Heat (2012-13) and Warriors (2017-18).

As such, the odds are stacked against the Celtics to repeat as champions, despite their dominant 16-3 playoff run to the 2024 title. However, most NBA GMs believe Jayson Tatum and Co. are on the verge of going back-to-back.

In the annual NBA.com GM survey, 83 percent of respondents picked the C's to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2025. That rate marks the third-highest for a title pick in the history of the 23-year survey, and the highest since 87 percent of GMs picked the Warriors to win the title in 2019.

Of course, the execs got it wrong that year, as the Warriors fell to the Raptors in the 2019 NBA Finals, albeit due to injuries to Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson.

It's rather startling that 83 percent of the league believes the Celtics face minimal resistance to hanging Banner No. 19, especially considering the significant roster upgrades made by the 76ers and the Knicks this offseason.

Their faith in Boston's chances was probably augmented by Tatum, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White gaining invaluable experience this summer at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Modern history suggests players invariably make tremendous strides following a trip to the Olympiad. Another factor could be continuity. The C's will be bringing back 12 of the same 15 players from last year's roster, with only Lonnie Walker IV, Dmytro Skapintsev, Ron Harper Jr. and several others fighting for the final three roster spots.

All that said, the GMs have been wrong more than right with their predictions over the 23 years of the survey. Since 2002-03, they forecasted the eventual champion correctly 10 out of 22 times. Those numbers should give optimism to the 29 teams trying to knock off Boston from the top of the mountain.