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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Why one NFL analyst believes the Cowboys are bound for a regression

By Carly Wimer | Last updated 10/12/24

For the past five years, the Dallas Cowboys have been stuck in a meme-worthy cycle. Dallas will have a strong regular season, giving fans hope that this will be the year the Cowboys end their nearly three-decade Super Bowl, before ultimately falling short in the playoffs.

But FS1 analyst Colin Cowherd believes this year, the bottom will start to fall out from under the Cowboys well before the playoffs begin.

Cowherd said on Friday that he believes Week 6 will mark the beginning of a "slow regression" for the Cowboys, who sit in second place in the NFC East with a 3-2 record.

"I predicted that the Dallas Cowboys, after three straight 12-win seasons, this year would be, because it’s now too Dak-reliant and he’s too expensive, we should start to see a regression starting this year," Cowherd said. "Not tumbling down a cliff, not a ski accident where you lose equipment and break a leg, not that, not that, kind of a slow, steady decline ... I think this slow regression will officially begin ... Sunday, 4 (p.m.) Eastern, only on Fox."

"I think this slow regression will officially begin."@ColinCowherd sends a warning ahead of Cowboys vs. Lions pic.twitter.com/IseyruwEBY
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) October 11, 2024

Of the many issues that Dallas has faced this season, Cowherd pointed to three key reasons behind the inevitable regression.

"So, Dallas, here are the three things that are inarguable," Cowherd said. "They can’t run the football. Translation, more pressure on Dak [Prescott]. They can’t stop the run, meaning bad time of possession team, more pressure on Dak, he gets fewer opportunities. Oh yeah, in an offensive league, they have exactly one great weapon. Cross your fingers on the health of CeeDee Lamb."

Owner Jerry Jones said this offseason that the Cowboys were "all in" on getting back to the Super Bowl in 2024, but his actions, or lack thereof, have told a different story. Both Prescott and Lamb got paid this offseason, and rightfully so, but their extensions were the only thing the Cowboys did this offseason.

After allowing Tony Pollard to walk in free agency, Dallas chose to bring Ezekiel Elliot back and re-sign Rico Dowdle, making them their top backs instead of extending an offer to Derrick Henry.

Jones hired Mike Zimmer to replace Dan Quinn as the Cowboys' defensive coordinator this season when Quinn left to become the Commanders' new head coach after three seasons in Dallas. Zimmer, who was brought in to make the defense more disciplined and stronger against the run, has instead taken the Cowboys from a top-10 defense to a bottom-10 defense, which as Cowherd highlighted, places more pressure on Prescott and Lamb to bail out the Cowboys.

In order for the Cowboys to avoid a regression, they need reinforcements, whether that means trading with the Raiders for All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, with the Panthers for running back Miles Sanders or with the Jets for holdout edge rusher Haason Reddick.

If Dallas is truly "all in," then it has some major decisions to make going into the trade deadline.

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