NFL betting: What we learned from Week 6, and a peek at Week 7

If you were thinking it was time you could back the Cowboys ...

Don't. Save yourself. This is not the betable team you're looking for.

Dallas' woes go beyond Sunday's 47-9 slaughter at the hands of the Detroit Lions. They are 2-3-1 ATS according to Covers and have yet to cover or win outright at home this season, not to mention that they are 0-1-1 ATS as the favorites in 2024. 

And if you thought this team was going to be distracted heading into the regular season with the CeeDee Lamb contract negotiations, how is their bye week going to play out with Mike McCarthy rumors hanging over them? (Heck, what if those Bill Belichick to Dallas rumors are true? Belichick and Jerry Jones working together? In this economy?)

Perhaps the bye is coming at just the right time for this inconsistent Cowboys squad. However, it is highly unlikely they will be a team to back with your NFL bets when they return to the gridiron. 

After all, they have to travel in Week 8 to play the Sunday night game against a San Francisco 49ers team that has badly beaten them in three straight meetings. That includes a game last season at Levi's that ended in a 42-10 victory for Kyle Shanahan's team.

Speaking of the 49ers ...

... they moved to 3-3 on the season and 3-3-0 ATS with a dominant showing against the Seahawks in Seattle on Thursday night. They also avoided (more) serious injury news after Jordan Mason had to leave that game with a sprained shoulder joint.

Injuries have played a roll in the 49ers early-season hiccups, from Christian McCaffrey on offense to Dre Greenlaw on defense. (The brass probably isn't happy with Greenlaw getting fined, but that's another story for another article.) San Francisco clearly has the tools to back Brock Purdy up and make another NFC title run, but their health makes them an interesting team to back week to week.

San Francisco could really use a cleaner bill of health heading into Week 7 action. Mason's availability could move the line on their next game, so stay tuned.

Adversaries in the NFC South

Congratulations to whoever had both "the Falcons and Buccaneers start the season 4-2" on their bingo card. The question now is whether you feel comfortable enough to back them on a regular basis.

Tampa Bay has done a slightly better job covering the spread and should roll into their Week 7 matchup with confidence after upending the New Orleans Saints 51-27. On the other hand, Atlanta won the head-to-head matchup against TB in overtime in Week 5 as part of their current three-game winning streak. 

That 36-30 OT loss to the Falcons brings into question whether the Bucs can close out games. It could also be part of why they are listed at +180 at DraftKings to win the division, while the Falcons are the -180 favorites.

Betting on these adversaries down the stretch still appears to be a real gamble, and they have another head-to-head coming up in Week 8. Maybe wait to see how Week 7 shakes out — the Falcons are on a bye while the Bucs host the Baltimore Ravens — before you back either team.

What to look for in Week 7

The Super Bowl rematch

You're going to hear a lot about this game ahead of next Sunday whether you want to or not.

The Niners enter the week as 1-point favorites at home and have to rematch against the Chiefs without McCaffrey, who played a huge role when these teams met last. Patrick Mahomes is a ridiculous 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog, although he trails Purdy this season in total yards, yards per game and touchdowns. Purdy also appears to heading into Week 7 with a good arsenal of weapons, while the Chiefs come out of their bye week with questions about their receiving corps and no Isaiah Pacheco to lead the ground game.

As we previously mentioned, Mason's availability to move the line for this game. It's worth keeping an eye on who's available before placing your bets.

Elsewhere in the league

If you the aforementioned matchup isn't your cup of tea, there is other NFL action you may want to back.

The mid-day must-watch matchup is against the Detroit Lions — fresh off dominating the Cowboys — against the undefeated Minnesota Vikings. Sam Darnold's squad is an early 1.5-point favorite coming out of their bye week, and it will be interesting to see if they can keep the momentum going after extra rest time.

The AFC agenda is a bit thin next week. However, the Battle of the Bads between the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars is a good one if you like wagering on the next coach to get canned. Jags HC Doug Pederson was the favorite at Covers less than a month ago to be the first coach sacked this season. After last week's loss in London, his leash is shorter than ever. 

Will that game yield good football? Probably not, but you'll still have something entertaining to bet on.