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Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

NFL Week 7: Dougherty's 'Beat the Line' bets

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 10/14/24

Our "Beat the Line" series produced a 1-2 record against the spread in Week 6, so we're looking to bounce back with a winning mark in Week 7. Let's look ahead to the upcoming NFL slate and target three bets we expect to move in our favor before kickoff.

Season record: 8-6-1 ATS, 7-6-2 CLV

Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints

This feels like a great spot for an under with two rookie quarterbacks going up against each other. We expect Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler to struggle in their first experience playing on "Thursday Night Football" with only three days to prepare.

The Saints scored 27 points in Rattler's first start, but that was a misleading final score. The South Carolina product completed just 55 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions in the game, and seven of New Orleans' points came on a Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown. Chris Olave also suffered a concussion in the game, so he's unlikely to be cleared to play before Thursday night. On the other side, the Broncos have one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL. This total should drop before game time. The bet to make: Under 37.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

The Eagles survived, 20-16, against an atrocious Cleveland Browns team in Week 6, giving us enough evidence to say Philadelphia isn't as good as we thought entering the season. The Eagles also lost Dallas Goedert, Jordan Mailata and Darius Slay to injuries during the game. Mailata was spotted walking on crutches after the game, so it would be surprising if he turns around and suits up in six days.

The Eagles depend on their offensive line to create holes for Saquon Barkley and give Jalen Hurts enough time to hit A.J. Brown down the field. If they can't protect his blind side against a ferocious Giants defensive line, the Eagles will struggle to move the ball and create explosive plays. On the other side, Malik Nabers should be able to return to the lineup next week, and he's set up for a monster game against this banged-up secondary. Grab the hook while you still can. The bet to make: Giants +3.5 (-108 DraftKings)

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Betting against the Ravens is a scary proposition right now, but this is the perfect matchup to fade them. Baltimore's winning blueprint is to run the ball at will (No. 1 in the NFL in rushing yards per game) and shut down the run on defense (No. 1 in rushing yards allowed per game), but the passing defense is one of the worst in the league.

The Buccaneers act as the perfect foil for the Ravens because they have the personnel to slow down this rushing attack with Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Lavonte David. They can also exploit this Ravens secondary down the field with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Tampa Bay can win this game outright, but we love being able to grab the hook at a cheap price. The bet to make: Buccaneers +3.5 (-105 FanDuel)

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