Why Buffalo Bills have yet to prove they're truly a contender

"Monday Night Football" will feature a classic AFC East rivalry matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets.

But if you've been studying Buffalo this season, you're probably leaning toward picking the Bills over the Jets. And history shows you have a very good chance of being correct.

Buffalo (3-2) is undefeated this season against teams below .500 (Week 1 Arizona based on 2023 record), averaging 37 points per game. However, inversely, it has lost both games against teams above .500, only averaging 15 points per game (h/t Trey Wingo).

So, despite leading the division, the 2024-25 Bills may not be the Josh Allen-led juggernaut from just a year ago.

To be fair, Buffalo has been without defensive stars like defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who will miss his second consecutive game on Monday, and have been working to replace offensive stars like wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, who left in free agency.

Despite all that, Buffalo was ranked No. 7 in the NFL's power rankings heading into Week 6 (a three-spot drop from Week 5).

A win on Monday would likely earn it a rankings boost, but how impressive should that actually weigh on Buffalo's resume?

Sure, it would be a win over four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers, but New York just fired head coach Robert Salah and appears to be in a tailspin at 2-3.

Subtracting the Week 3 win against New England, New York averages 17.3 points per game, has a 36 percent third-down conversion rate and just over 28 minutes of possession. On top of that, Rodgers is 26th in the league in completion percentage.

Buffalo's run defense is 26th in the league going up against New York's 32nd-ranked run offense, a stoppable force meeting a very moveable object. (Something will have to give on Monday night.)

Until Buffalo puts together a string of consistent play against winning opponents, there just isn't enough evidence to confidently identify the Bills as a contender.