Abysmal start has former Big 12 champion in need of a coaching change

After Baylor's first six games this season, the school is sitting with a disappointing 2-4 record, and the Bears are on track to finish their schedule with a losing record for the fourth time in the last five years.

Dave Aranda has been Baylor's head coach during these five years, and it seems safe to assume that he could be in the middle of his final season with the team.

There were calls for Aranda to be fired following the 2023 campaign when the Bears finished with a 3-9 record, but the school decided to give him another chance. That has turned out to be a big mistake.

Baylor's only two wins this season have come over Tarleton State, an FCS school, and a 1-5 Air Force team. In their four other games against Utah, Colorado, BYU and Iowa State, the Bears have lost by an average of 11.5 points.

In its fifth year with Aranda leading the way, things still haven't been able to get back on track for Baylor, so a change needs to be made either soon or after the conclusion of the 2024 season.

Unfortunately, firing Aranda is going to be cheap for the Bears. The Baylor head coach is currently under contract with the school until 2030, and to move on from him before his deal expires, 247Sports estimates that his buyout will cost the Bears $16 million.

Then, Baylor has to think about who it would like to hire as Aranda's replacement. His background is on the defensive side of the ball, so perhaps the Bears' next head coach will be someone whose strengths center around offense.

Some possible names that Baylor could choose to replace Aranda include UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor, Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne and current Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.

There's also a slim chance that Aranda could still help Baylor turn things around. The Bears have a road matchup against 5-1 Texas Tech on Saturday, but after that contest, none of their remaining five opponents currently have a winning record.

Based on the last few seasons, however, the odds of Baylor emerging from the final six games on its schedule with a winning record are pretty low. ESPN's College Football Power Index currently projects the Bears to finish the 2024 campaign with a 5-7 record, and right now, that sounds like a best-case scenario.

But for a school that has won multiple Big 12 titles since 2000, a 5-7 finish would be unacceptable, and it would likely result in Baylor showing Aranda the door.