Astros GM answers what's next for Houston after early postseason exit

The Astros’ incredible seven consecutive runs to the American League Championship Series ended Wednesday when they ran into a scorching-hot Tigers club helmed by former Houston skipper A.J. Hinch. Although the ’Stros had their shortest season since 2016 and have several high-profile free agents coming off the books, general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada clarified in addressing the team’s beat that there’s no plan to step back. Houston will unsurprisingly aim at another deep postseason run next year, although tighter-than-usual financial parameters could punctuate the looming offseason.

“I think we’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to — are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and … allocate that money to other places,” Brown said Thursday via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “…We may have to get a little bit creative.”

That’s an ominous sentiment for any fan to hear from a team’s GM at the onset of the offseason. A look at Houston’s payroll reveals a similarly dire setup. The Astros opened the 2024 season with a payroll of around $235M and finished the year north of $244M, per RosterResource. They already have $147M in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (including dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero). That doesn’t include a 10-player arbitration class — headlined by Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $57M. Add pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Astros are sitting around the $212M mark next year before making a single addition.

In the absence of any notable free-agent departures, perhaps that’d be workable, but the Astros will see franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman reach the open market for the first time in his career next month. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is also a free agent, as is deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, who thrived in the Houston rotation down the stretch. Relievers Caleb Ferguson, Hector Neris and Kendall Graveman are also free agents, as are role players Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel.

Bregman, of course, is the most notable name of the bunch. Espada plainly stated that he hoped Bregman would return and heaped praise on the former No. 2 overall pick for his on-field contributions and the manner in which he’s been the heart and soul of the team’s clubhouse.

“I’ve talked a lot about how much I love the individual, the human,” Espada said of Bregman via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. “I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people in clubhouse. He’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. I would love to have Bregman playing third base for us next year.”

Whether that’s feasible remains an open question. Teammate Jose Altuve has stumped for Bregman’s return in recent days — even before the team’s elimination — and Brown has said since being hired in the 2022-23 offseason that he hopes to keep Bregman in Houston for the entirety of his career. That talk has yet to manifest as a contract, although the Astros are reportedly expected to put forth a formal offer soon. Brown doubled down on his hope of keeping Bregman and plans to talk with agent Scott Boras about a reunion (X link via McTaggart), but there are reasons to be skeptical of a deal coming to fruition.

The Astros, under owner Jim Crane, have never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115M deal — nor have they given out a contract worth a larger guarantee than Jose Altuve’s most recent $151M extension. Josh Hader’s five-year contract is the lengthiest and largest guaranteed money Houston has given to a free agent under current ownership. Bregman stands as one of the top-five free agents in this season’s market, arguably the No. 2 or 3 in this year’s class behind Juan Soto.

Hitting the market before his age-31 season, Bregman will have a case for a six- or possibly seven-year deal. He’s a year younger than fellow third baseman Matt Chapman, who just inked a six-year, $151M extension to stay in San Francisco. Seven-year guarantees for position players beginning in their age-31 season or later are rare, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. However, Marcus Semien (seven years, $175M with the Rangers) is a recent prominent example.

Even if Bregman is limited to “only” six years, he’ll surely seek a larger guarantee than Chapman's received last month. Chapman didn’t have the benefit of open-market bidding, and Bregman, even if he can’t match Chapman’s wizardry with the glove, is a quality defender who has been the more consistent offensive player of the pair. In addition to the Astros, clubs like the Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals, and Nationals could be in the market for third-base help. Unexpected suitors frequently emerge in pursuit of top-tier free agents, too.

Given Bregman’s tenure with the team and value on and off the field, it’s certainly feasible that Crane could push beyond his previous comfort levels to keep him in the fold. In that case, Bregman would likely push Houston close to $240M of payroll obligations — or at least north of $230M on a backloaded deal. Creatively structuring the contract, however, wouldn’t impact the luxury tax like it does bottom-line payroll. Luxury tax is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value; re-signing Bregman would push the Astros into tax territory for a second straight season and only the third time under Crane’s ownership.

Brown left open the door for virtually any possibility, telling reporters the Astros “are not taking anything off the table in terms of what we’ll do” (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they both re-sign Bregman and add the bullpen pieces, which he also said will be a focus this winter (X link via McTaggart). Houston could always turn to the trade market to drop some payroll from other roster areas. Still, they indeed won’t consider moving Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker or Valdez, and the contracts of Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t going to draw interest from other clubs. Ryan Pressly’s remaining one year and $14M could be movable, but flipping him would only further the need to add bullpen arms.

One area the Astros don’t seem likely to spend heavily is in the rotation. Brown called next year’s staff “stacked.” The Astros will bring back Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Injured righties McCullers and Luis Garcia will hopefully be ready for the start of the season after missing all of 2024. Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy (if he’s tendered a contract) and J.P. France could all be midseason reinforcements. Prospect Ryan Gusto, 25, had a nice season in Triple-A (3.70 ERA, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 148 1/3 innings).

As of right now, it’s a group that doesn’t include Verlander. Brown touched on the subject of the three-time Cy Young winner (X link via McTaggart), noting that it “sounds like he wants to come back” but that he’ll “have some discussions with our front office … as to what’s best for the team.” Verlander spent much of the 2024 season on the injured list due to shoulder and neck injuries. He struggled badly enough down the stretch in his final six starts (8.89 ERA) that he wasn’t included on the team’s roster for the wild-card series against Detroit. With the Astros facing mounting payroll issues and already possessing a fairly deep stock of arms, a reunion may not be in the cards.