Rays could deal from rotation depth this offseason

After the club’s first losing season in six years, the Rays are headed into what figures to be a pivotal offseason for the club as they look to remain contenders in a highly competitive AL East division. 

As noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, one way the club could look to address its lackluster offense (29th in the majors in runs scored this year) this winter is by trading from the rotation depth to acquire a bat, even if that bat doesn’t address the reported offseason priority of improving the club at catcher.

For a Tampa club that enters the winter in serious need of an offensive boost, it’s hard to deny the logic in dealing from the deep group of available arms. Youngsters Taj Bradley, Shane Baz and Ryan Pepiot all emerged as solid, affordable rotation options for the club this year, and Zack Littell’s first full season in a big league rotation seems to have established him as a quality mid-rotation option with one year to go before free agency.

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Springs returned to make seven solid starts for the club in the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery early last year and Drew Rasmussen also rejoined the club’s pitching staff late in the year following his own 2023 elbow surgery. Rasmussen pitched primarily in a relief role this year, never throwing more than 38 pitches in an outing, but figures to be a rotation option for the Rays come spring training. That also figures to be the case for lefty Shane McClanahan, who went under the knife last August but figures to be ready for spring training as well.

With at least seven quality rotation options even after dealing away Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin at the trade deadline over the summer, it would certainly make sense for the club to explore dealing from that depth to address the offense. 

The Braves, Cubs and Red Sox are all already known to be interested in adding rotation help this winter, while the Orioles and Mets are among the many other teams that could stand to benefit from adding a starter or two this winter as well. 

With even more clubs sure to look to bolster their pitching when the offseason fully gets underway following the World Series, the Rays should be well-positioned to make a deal if they so choose.

Given the club’s small-market payroll and focus on long-term sustainability, it would be something of a surprise to see the Rays move on from any of Bradley, Baz or Pepiot without recouping a similarly talented and controllable bat in return. 

On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a shock if clubs were hesitant to deal for McClanahan or Rasmussen given the former hasn’t pitched in more than a year while the latter hasn’t stretched out to start since returning from injury. That could leave Littell and Springs as the most likely candidates to be dealt this winter, with each hurler having various pros and cons as a trade candidate.

When it comes to Littell, the argument for dealing him is rather straightforward: the righty is only under team control through the end of the 2025 season and projects for a not insignificant $4.8M in his final trip through arbitration, according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, so by dealing him, the Rays could save a bit of money to address other areas of the roster while also potentially bringing in a more controllable player to complement their offense. 

With that being said, Littell’s status as a rental could dampen the return for his services somewhat on the heels of a 3.63 ERA campaign that was more solid than excellent.

If teams aren’t scared off by Springs’ lack of volume over the past few years, then he might be able to bring back a more significant return. After all, the southpaw has been dominant when healthy with a 2.44 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 184 1/3 innings of work since 2022, when he first became a starter. 

Results that strong would be valuable to virtually any rotation in baseball, and Springs’ $21.75M guarantee over the next two years lands in the sort of sweet spot that would make him a relative bargain for other teams. He would still be clearing a significant financial burden off the books in Tampa, allowing Erik Neander and his front office to explore further upgrades in free agency even beyond what Springs would bring back in trade.