Despite being a first-round pick, after the way Sam Honzek’s season went down last year, many would have avoided the term “NHL-ready.” Even still, the forward made the Calgary Flames NHL club out of camp and has played on the top line alongside Nazem Kadri to start the year.

Today, I will outline Honzek’s path to being an immediate NHLer and evaluate what the future may hold for the young prospect.

Honzek’s 2023-24 season

For a top-20 NHL draft pick, forwards are expected to find elite consistency and push their point totals higher than ever before if they are sent back to junior for their Draft+1 (D+1) season. For example, if a player had 20 goals and 40 assists for 60 points in 68 WHL games in their draft year, one could expect them to reach 30+ goals and 75+ points (at minimum) in their D+1 season, depending on individual standards for these athletes and considering things like their junior teams’ situations. In Honzek’s case, his D+1 season consisted of injuries, playing for a mid-tier team with a new coach, and a significant drop in production, going from 1.3 Points Per Game (P/GP) in 2022-2023 to 0.94 P/GP in 2023-2024 (about a 20-point difference for a full 68-game season).

When evaluating Honzek’s two years in North America, he has only played 56% of possible WHL regular season games and did not have the statistical backing to warrant an NHL position automatically. However, Honzek’s determination and work this past year to get healthy eventually led to a surprise spot on the Calgary Flames’ opening night roster.

“Sam Honzek is another excellent example of how stats alone don’t sufficiently tell a prospect’s story. Some Flames fans were calling him a bust because he didn’t score a lot last year, but he was battling injuries on a bad team with a new coach. His true talent was being hindered” (Derek Neumeier)

2023 draft comparables

Of note, Samuel Honzek is one of just 10 players from the 2023 NHL Draft to play NHL games (as of October 15th, 2024), despite being drafted at #16. Furthermore, 9 players drafted above Honzek have yet to play for their respective NHL teams. This is a significant achievement for the young forward.

Furthermore, out of all WHL forwards taken in the Top-64 of the 2023 NHL Draft, Honzek is the only player of his kind (6’4” offensive forward):

• 5’10” generational player
• 6’2” all-around player
• 5’10” playmaker
• 5’11” scorer
• 6’2” offensive player
• 6’1” off-puck player
• 5’11” offensive grinder
• 5’11” offensive-minded player

The opportunity for Calgary to scout the WHL compared to other hockey leagues around the world plus the unique player type that Honzek possesses (size + 1st-round skill) must have been intriguing from both a 2023 draft perspective and a 2024 NHL training camp viewpoint.

When considering modern hockey, smaller offensive-oriented forwards sometimes falter when certain in-game tight-checking situations occur including winning board battles, competing ‘below the dots’ (bottom half of the offensive zone), and being an effective net-front presence. For players looking to crack NHL rosters, if you can’t compete physically without the puck and aren’t able to command space with the puck as a rookie, then an NHL future sometimes looks bleak at first glance.

Honzek can compete ‘below the dots’ and we saw glimpses of this in his first few games with NHL Calgary, crashing the net off-puck, focusing his play on being in high-danger spots ready to receive passes, and being a supportive teammate in battles.

There seem to be more and more high-skill forwards in the range of ~5’11”, leading to players like Honzek being categorized as potential market inefficiencies at the forward position (combination of significant size and higher-end skill). Based on Calgary’s analysis of all prospects available to them at #16, they felt that Honzek’s unique skill + size combo was harder to find outside of the draft and selected a player who, less than 2 years after being drafted, is playing in NHL games.

This is reminiscent of the Kevin Bahl and Artem Grushnikov acquisitions, where Calgary is looking to find players who offer skills (skating, puck skills, etc.) but also can compete physically when the game becomes ‘tight-checking’. I could imagine conversations about ‘who would you rather have in the playoffs’ went down when the Flames were considering who to draft at #16 in 2023, and the 6’4” Honzek was their answer.

Honzek’s immediate future

Honzek could be destined for the American Hockey League (AHL) this season, as he is eligible for the AHL as a 2004-born and soon-to-be 20-year-old. The AHL may be best for Honzek’s first year of pro hockey, as the WHL may not be enough of the challenge for a player who made an opening night NHL lineup at 19. I had originally predicted Honzek to return to the Vancouver Giants, where players like Cameron Schmidt could be dynamic linemates to help develop Honzek’s game in junior. If Honzek keeps his NHL spot and ends up staying with the Flames all year (playing for a team that is currently beating their divisional rivals night after night), I could foresee an up-and-down season ahead, one where young players typically need to mature mentally and physically.

Fortunately for the former WHL captain, Honzek seems to have a good head on his shoulders and is a step ahead of most 19-year-olds in the physical maturity department, which may allow him to stick around better for a first pro season as opposed to smaller rookies. Another summer of strength training could help the player become more assertive at the NHL level, but I want to focus on celebrating Honzek’s achievements of making the NHL and his ability to rebound after a difficult hockey situation last year rather than pointing out what needs to be done next summer.

The important thing for Samuel Honzek is that he’s been trusted to play NHL minutes as a 19-year-old and has demonstrated habits that could translate to NHL production in the future. I am excited to see what the future holds, regardless if Honzek plays 9 or 79 games in the NHL this season. He hasn’t necessarily looked a step behind his teammates or opponents, and more opportunities for professional North American hockey must be rewarding for the young player looking to prove his worth to Flames management and fans.

Has Samuel Honzek convinced you of his NHL future?