NHL goalies are cashing in: Here’s what it means for the Canucks and Thatcher Demko

On Thursday morning, Jake Oettinger and the Dallas Stars came to terms on an eight-year extension nearly identical to the one Jeremy Swayman signed with the Boston Bruins, as both contracts carry cap hits of $8.25 million annually. In Ottawa, Linus Ullmark recently signed a four-year deal with the Senators with the same cap hit.

These three extensions, combined with the recent report that Igor Shesterkin turned down an eight-year contract with an AAV of $11 million from the New York Rangers, make one thing clear.

NHL goalies are cashing in.

For years, goaltenders have been underpaid relative to their forward and defence-playing peers, but it seems like that’s all about to change. Shesterkin’s camp, for example, appears to be arguing that because Shesterkin is the Rangers’ best player, he should be their highest paid player. When these goalies hit free agency, there will certainly be at least one team willing to pay them what they want, and the result is that teams are now paying up to retain their goaltenders.

What does all this mean for Thatcher Demko and the Vancouver Canucks?

First, let’s start with Demko’s perspective. While he recovers from his “rare and unique” popliteus injury, goalies around the league are getting paid. With two seasons left — including this current one — on his 5×5 contract that he signed with the Canucks in 2021, Demko has limited time to prove to not only the Canucks, but the rest of the league as well, that he shouldn’t be labelled as injury prone and is someone worthy of one of these big ticket contracts.

Demko was the Vezina Trophy runner-up last season, but has sustained multiple lower-body injuries and missed 49 regular season games since the 2022-23 season, not to mention 12 of the Canucks’ 13 playoff games in 23-24. When healthy, Demko is one of the game’s elite netminders, but that’s now the big question: can Demko stay healthy?

One figures that in order to put himself in line for one of these lengthy and pricey contracts when he hits free agency at age 30, Demko will need to remain virtually injury free when he returns from this current injury. And at 30, going on 31, it’d be hard to believe the term on his deal is as long as what Oettinger and Swayman signed for. Rather, it’d likely be closer to Ullmark’s deal in Ottawa — pricey, but not for more than four or five years. Nonetheless, Demko will need to shed his tag of being injury prone in order to cash in.

From the Canucks’ perspective, they of course would want to retain their Vezina-calibre goaltender, but they, like other teams around the league, will need to see him stay healthy for a long stretch of time in order to feel comfortable signing that deal. Could the matter become a bit more complicated if Arturs Silovs, Nikita Tolopilo, or one of the Canucks’ other goaltending prospects emerges as a capable NHL starter, similar to what happened when Demko took the reins from Jacob Markstrom? Certainly. But for now, the Canucks undoubtedly want Demko to be their guy and by all accounts, Demko wants to be Vancouver’s guy as well.

An interesting wrinkle in all this for the Canucks is if they’re able to get a damaged goods discount of sorts if Demko’s previous health concerns scare teams away on the open market. If this is what elite goaltenders are getting paid, would the Canucks be wise to jump at the chance to sign Demko for under $8 million simply because he’s been injured in recent seasons? There could be potential upside and surplus value there for the Canucks if Demko figures out his health problems and continues to play at an elite level.

When it comes to Demko’s next contract, the waters become muddied if he continues to go down with injuries over the next season and a half. But assuming the best case scenario: Demko returns in the next month or so, is an undeniably elite NHL goaltender again and leads the Canucks into the playoffs both this season and next, that contract could very easily get into the $8-9+ million AAV territory we’re seeing other goalies signing for right now.

Should the Canucks be the ones to sign that contract? It’s far too early to tell, but the results of the rest of this season and 2025-26 should make it crystal clear for all parties involved if Demko will remain a Canuck heading into his age 31 season.