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New Lightning Forwards’ Best Situations for Generating Offense

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jack Pallotta | Last updated 8/12/24

No two hockey players are the same. Superstars like Sidney Crosby, Artemi Panarin, and Jack Hughes create shot opportunities for their team in any game scenario, whether on the forecheck, cycle, or off-the-rush. On the other hand, players like Teuvo Teravainen, Yanni Gourde, and Yakov Trenin produce shot attempts purely off the forecheck and cycle. Then we have the offensive blackholes who struggle to create offense no matter the situation or linemates.

The Tampa Bay Lightning made a few additions to their forward core this summer, and all three will play different roles for the team. Starting with Jake Guentzel, he will be a first-line point producer, while veteran Cam Atkinson will be in a middle-six secondary role. Finally, Zemgus Girgensons will play a perfect fourth-line depth role this season. In what situations will the new Lightning forwards generate the most offense?

Jake Guentzel Generates Shots in Any Situation

One of the most versatile offensive players in the NHL, Guentzel, can produce shots in any scenario. He proved he could be elite on two teams, adding the “system-proof” label to his name. Looking at AllThreeZone’s workbook by Corey Sznjader, Guentzel finished well above the league average in shots generated off the forecheck/cycle and the rush with the Pittsburgh Penguins. The average shots off the forecheck/cycle on a per 60 rate was 8.63 for the 2023-24 season, and Guentzel recorded 13.06 shots in this environment per hour. In addition, he recorded 13.06 shots off the rush per hour compared to the league average of just 7.96.

No matter the situation for Guentzel, he will successfully produce shots for himself and his linemates. Knowing that he can play at nearly a 1.5 points-per-game pace without Crosby on his line, imagine the damage he can do with one of the league’s best passers, Nikita Kucherov. We predict Guentzel will record over 90 points for the first time in his career this season, and his ability to create offense in any situation strengthens this belief.

Cam Atkinson Creates Shots Off the Rush

Atkinson likes to generate shots off the rush. Despite being 35 years old, he plays with speed and puck control. Atkinson notched 12.08 shots off the rush per 60 last season, four more shots than the league average of 7.96. Meanwhile, he finished just below the league mean in shots via the forecheck/cycle with 8.20 on a per-hour rate. While injuries have derailed his career in recent seasons, Atkinson will get a fresh start with the Lightning under a brilliant head coach and offensive system.

In the first half of last season, the team was abysmal at creating shots off the rush. As the season went on, they improved with their zone entries. Atkinson is known to pass the puck well off the rush, so we hope to see him help Mikey Eyssimont mature his offensive game. Having a third line that can generate offense off the rush isn’t easy to find and would add another layer of value to a top-heavy Lightning offense.

Zemgus Girgensons Remains a Unique Case

Girgensons remains a question mark. While the Latvian native finished well below the league mean in shots off the forecheck/cycle and the rush, he’s spent his entire career with a subpar Buffalo Sabres group. On the other hand, Guentzel and Atkinson have had opportunities on multiple teams, including Stanley Cup championship rosters. Girgensons has yet to appear in a playoff game after almost 700 games of NHL experience.

We aren’t entirely sure what Girgensons can do offensively in a new environment. He’s proven two-way depth, registering double-digit goal totals four times in his career. However, maybe he has another level to his game. We learn a lot about NHL players when they change teams for the first time.

How The Lightning Generated Offense Last Season

The Lightning offense didn’t come from a particular source at 5-on-5 last season. The team finished roughly average in shots off the forecheck/cycle and the rush. Players like Kucherov and Brandon Hagel created offense in all scenarios as dual threats, while a player like Brayden Point was considered a rush specialist due to his absurd amount of controlled zone entries. On the other hand, Steven Stamkos and Conor Sheary produce shots off the cycle. Replacing Stamkos with Guentzel is a massive upgrade because Guentzel will impact the Lightning’s rush offense and 5-on-5 scoring much more. Ultimately, all three players should benefit the Lightning offensively in their unique ways this season.