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Oliver Wahlstrom, New York Islanders (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

Islanders Need More From Their Depth

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Michael Ostrower | Last updated 10/17/24

The New York Islanders have begun their 2024-25 season with a 1-1-1 record. Offseason acquisitions Maxim Tsyplakov and Anthony Duclair have fit in well during their first few games on Long Island, while key forwards Mat Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Brock Nelson continue to lead the way. However, depth, particularly among the forwards, has been a concern, and the team will need to address this issue soon if they hope to improve on last season’s late run.

Wahlstrom Not a Fit on the Fourth Line

Drafted in 2018, Oliver Wahlstrom was once a highly touted prospect for the Islanders, known for his powerful shot and the potential to become a 30+ goal scorer. However, at 24 years old, he has yet to meet those expectations, and the Islanders seem hesitant to make a definitive call on his future. While he’s not necessarily a bust, his raw talent has not translated into consistent production, and the team lacks the time or patience for him to work through such shortcomings. His torn ACL injury during the 2022-23 season has further hindered his development, with his skating significantly deteriorating since the injury, limiting his upside.

Heading into the 2024-25 season, many expected Wahlstrom to be sent to the Bridgeport Islanders in the American Hockey League, but instead, he made the Islanders’ opening night roster and has played in all three games on the fourth line. Unfortunately, his skating and defensive consistency has struggled, holding the line back.

While Wahlstrom has yet to register a point, the bigger issue is his overall performance. He has not been on the ice for an Islanders goal and currently holds a 20.1% expected goals percentage (xG%), according to MoneyPuck. His linemates, Kyle MacLean, and Casey Cizikas, have also underperformed offensively, but both contribute in the faceoff dot and on the penalty kill—areas where Wahlstrom has provided no impact.

At this stage in Wahlstrom’s career, he is not suited for a fourth-line role. As a shoot-first winger, he is being asked to play more like a physical, two-way forward, which does not align with his strengths. Unfortunately for Wahlstrom, the Islanders are a contending team with a logjam on the wing, meaning they do not have the ability to guide him through necessary development, meaning cutting ties may be the best course of action. When the team placed Pierre Engvall on waivers, general manager Lou Lamoriello stated, “[Engvall] is not a bottom-six player… but there’s only so much room [on the roster].” This sentiment clearly reflects the organization’s philosophy, and it is time they apply the same standard to Wahlstrom.

Currently, the Islanders’ fourth line ranks third-last in the NHL with a 25% expected goals percentage (xG%) and last in the league with a 0.0% goals for percentage (G%). It also sits at the bottom of the Islanders’ rankings in expected goals per 60 minutes (0.96) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.87), far worse than the other lines. While the fourth line may be the least impactful of the team’s forward units, these numbers are unacceptable and must not be ignored.

Fixing the Fourth Line

There are two potential solutions for the Islanders’ fourth-line struggles. The first option is to scratch Wahlstrom and plug Julien Gauthier into the lineup. Currently the Islanders’ 13th forward, the 27-year-old has yet to play in a regular season game. He possesses speed, a strong shot, and is dependable in transition and the defensive zone. Last season, he played 27 games for the Islanders, registering nine points (five goals and four assists). While his advanced analytics were not very good, his speed could add value to the revamped fourth line. With how poorly the current line looks, there is nothing to lose in trying Gauthier for a game or two.

The second option to address the Islanders’ bottom-six issues involves sending Wahlstrom to Bridgeport, recalling Engvall to play on the third line, and shifting Simon Holmstrom to the fourth line. This would allow Engvall to play alongside Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, reuniting a line that posted a 60.7% expected goals percentage (xG%) in their four games together last season. In the playoffs, they recorded an impressive 68.3% xG%, the highest of any line combination during that time.

It’s important to note that this analysis does not imply that Wahlstrom is a bad hockey player. The problem lies not in his ability but in how he has been utilized. This perspective is based not on a knee-jerk reaction from just three games, either, but rather on an assessment of his skillset and the Islanders’ current direction. He was a great prospect and still has potential, but the situation does not allow for Wahlstrom to break out on Long Island, meaning it is time for the Islanders to move on.