Qualifying Offer Could Hurt Philadelphia Phillies Pursuit of Replacing Taijuan Walker

The Philadelphia Phillies are expected to pursue a fifth starter due to Taijuan Walker struggling mightily throughout the campaign. While the Phillies' pitching staff wasn't the reason for their loss in the National League Division Series, it's an area they should look to improve in the offseason. 

If they want to continue winning the National League East, as there are many benefits to doing so, having an above-average fifth starter would go a long way.

It's uncertain if Philadelphia plans to spend much on a starter. If one becomes available who they want, Dave Dombrowski and the ownership group have proven they're willing to pay up.

However, with some other needs on the roster, mostly in the lineup, that could be their focus.

That could mean they get risky and take a chance on a player returning from injury or a guy who didn't have the campaign he was looking to have in 2024.

Players who fit that description include Shane Bieber.

Bieber has been one of the top starters in Major League Baseball throughout his career, but he's suffered multiple injuries and had Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the year.

He could be in line to get a qualifying offer, which would likely hurt the Phillies' chances of signing him. 

Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com explained the qualifying offer process, and the money is the thing to look for. 

"Teams can extend a qualifying offer to select free agents each offseason. Players who accept are signed to a one-year deal for the next season at the designated value (set at $21.05 million for 2025). Those who don't accept remain free agents, and if a new team signs them, their old team receives Draft pick compensation."

Given Bieber will have to show teams around baseball that he still has the stuff to be one of the top arms in the league, $21.05 million might be more than what he gets paid from other clubs. 

If that's the case, Philadelphia likely wouldn't want to go above that number unless they landed him on a multi-year deal and felt comfortable with his injury history.

"Bieber won the AL Cy Young Award during the shortened 2020 season and owns a lifetime 3.22 ERA, but he has missed significant time due to injury in three of the past four years. He only made two starts in 2024 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which is expected to keep him out for the start of next season."

As Harrigan alluded, there's reason to believe he could return to a high-level pitcher. Tommy John surgery isn't nearly as bad as it once was, either, so buying low on Bieber would be a wise decision.