Current Salary Obligations Make it Tough to See Toronto Blue Jays Going After Juan Soto

The Toronto Blue Jays turned in a disappointing last-place finish in the American League East in 2024 and now they head into an incredibly challenging offseason. The Blue Jays feel too good to completely tear down, with the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Bo Bichette under team control, however, they don't feel quite good enough to go all-in on, as evidenced by their last-place finish.

So, how the Blue Jays handle things will be one of the most important stories of the entire MLB offseason. Do they extend Guerrero Jr., trade him or stand pat? How about Bichette, who is coming off a miserable 2024? Could they move on from their veteran pitchers to save money and go with a more prospect driven approach?

Furthermore, it seems unlikely that the team will make a serious run at Juan Soto this offseason, despite making a real run at Shohei Ohtani last offseason.

On Wednesday, MLBTradeRumors did an outstanding deep dive on the Blue Jays and their entire situation, but the financial commitments on the books already make it hard to find a chance for Soto:

The Jays have approximately $186-190MM on the books already for 2025, as per the slightly differing projections from Cot’s and RosterResource.  Our calculations (between the guaranteed contracts and Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections) put that number a bit lower at $179.57MM, and of course a bit of the arbitration costings could be trimmed by non-tenders.  If the Blue Jays do have a somewhat similar payroll in mind, that leaves a decent but not outsized chunk of spending space to match the approximate $225.3MM figure of their payroll from Opening Day 2024.

Let's just say for arguments sake that the Jays current commitments are $175 million for 2025. That leaves about $50 million in order to get back to last year's number. Soto could command $50 million a year himself, leaving nothing for the rest of the roster, which clearly needs help. Furthermore, if they were to pay Soto, where is the money for Guerrero Jr.'s possible extension coming from? Would they move on from him and choose Soto? It's possible, but it seems odd that the team would jettison a popular and homegrown player like that.

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