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Lightning’s fatal flaw that must be fixed in 2024-25 season

Originally posted on NHL on ClutchPoints
By Tristin McKinstry | Last updated 10/8/24

The Tampa Bay Lightning are ready for the 2024-25 season now that training camp has ended across the NHL. Tampa Bay failed to advance in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the second consecutive season. The Lightning were eliminated by the Florida Panthers in the first round in five games. In the summer, Tampa Bay made some very interesting moves.

The most notable move is the departure of Steven Stamkos. The Lightning allowed Stamkos to test free agency this summer. He hit the open market on July 1 and signed a four-year contract with the Nashville Predators. Tampa Bay replaced Stamkos with Jake Guentzel, who signed a seven-year contract after a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Whether this move works out in the long run certainly remains to be seen. However, Stamkos and Guentzel will be under microscopes for the next few seasons. Both players will be compared to each other as the years go on. And the success they find with their respective teams will certainly be of interest to fans across the league.

The Lightning cannot worry about their former captain, however. They have a season of their own to play, and that season is right around the corner. Tampa Bay has Stanley Cup ambitions they want to see realized in 2025. But if that is to happen, they have to fix a glaring flaw with their team in the season ahead.

The Lightning are not strong defensively

Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman (77) skates with the puck against the Ottawa Senators during the second period at Amalie Arena. Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Lightning have one of the best offensive units in the NHL. Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, and Brayden Point have contributed to their incredible offensive effort over the last few seasons. However, the same can certainly not be said about Tampa Bay’s overall team defense.

Tampa Bay is not an incredibly strong defensive team. They finished 20th in Even Strength Defensive Goals Above Replacement (0.4) in 2023-24, according to Evolving Hockey. This is not a new trend, either. The Lightning rank 17th in the NHL in EVD GAR (15.3) since the 2021-22 season.

What’s concerning is the team’s best players are simultaneously their worst defenders. Hedman ranked dead last among Lightning skaters in Defensive Goals Above Replacement (-6.9) in 2023-24. Other players with a negative DGAR include Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and the recently departed Steven Stamkos.

The Lightning did address their blueline in the offseason by bringing back a familiar face. Ryan McDonagh returned to the Lightning via trade with the Nashville Predators this summer. McDonagh played in Tampa for parts of five seasons before a trade to Nashville in 2021.

McDonagh should certainly improve Tampa Bay’s blueline. In 2023-24, he posted a respectable 3.5 DGAR for the Predators. He helped Nashville make the Stanley Cup Playoffs thanks to a second-half surge. Additionally, he has been worth nearly 2.0 WAR since the initial trade to the Predators.

McDonagh could help Hedman if the two are paired together. However, he alone cannot rectify the team’s defensive woes. Especially since Lightning forwards also struggle defensively. In fact, the team’s best defensive forward in terms of DGAR — Tyler Motte — signed elsewhere in NHL Free Agency this summer.

The Lightning still project as a playoff contender even with their defensive woes. But struggling defensively is going to limit what they can do in the postseason. Especially against some of the more offensively inclined contenders. Tampa Bay has a skilled roster without a doubt. But if they want to go far, they need to tighten things up in their own end of the ice in 2024-25.

This article first appeared on NHL on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

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