Can the Tigers Get the ALDS Back to Tarik Skubal for Game 5?

The magic of the 2024 Detroit Tigers prevailed once again on Monday, as they secured Game 2 of their ALDS matchup with the Cleveland Guardians in epic fashion.

After the offense struggled to get anything going for the majority of the afternoon, Kerry Carpenter saved the day with the most important swing at the most important time.

The game was tied at 0-0 with two outs in the top of the ninth inning when Carpenter blasted an improbable three-run, go-ahead homer over the right field wall off the game’s best reliever, Emmanuel Clase.

Just like that, the Tigers will head back to the Motor City with this best-of-five series all square at one game apiece.

Carpenter may have been the hero of the game for the Tigers, but Tarik Skubal put them in a position to win with his sensational start in Game 2. The presumptive 2024 AL Cy Young Award winner was in premier form on Monday, leading Detroit to victory when the team was in dire need of a win.

A Dominant Game 2 Outing for Skubal

Skubal dazzled in his second career postseason start on Monday. The 27-year-old went seven strong innings, fanning eight without surrendering a single walk.

He generated 14 whiffs on the day and ended the outing with a terrific CSW (Called Strike + Whiff) rate of 37%. His arsenal was on full display, and the Guardians struggled to do much damage against him.

Although, it wasn’t entirely smooth sailing for Skubal. He was on cruise control for the first four innings, retiring the first 12 batters he faced, but things got a bit tighter shortly after that.

Following a leadoff strikeout to Lane Thomas in the top of the fifth, the Guardians were finally able to generate some traffic on the base paths.

Josh Naylor shot a double into the gap in right-center field for Cleveland’s first hit of the ballgame. Skubal then hit Jhonkensy Noel with an 0-1 fastball to put runners on first and second with just one out.

In typical Skubal fashion, however, he would quickly put an end to the Guardians’ offensive momentum. He got Andrés Giménez to ground into an inning-ending double play on the very next pitch, and Cleveland’s first offensive threat of the game was quickly extinguished.

The Guardians would get another shot to get after Skubal in the top of the sixth. Following a leadoff groundout by Austin Hedges, Skubal surrendered a double to Brayan Rocchio, and the Guardians’ lineup flipped back to the top of the order.

Steven Kwan followed Rocchio’s double with a line drive single to left field, but Rocchio had to hold up at third base.

With runners on first and third and just one out, this was the turning point in the ballgame. Offense was at a premium with how well both pitching staffs were performing, and this was Cleveland’s chance to finally chase Skubal out of the ballgame.

But Skubal didn’t falter. He once again escaped the jam by getting David Fry to bounce into a 6-4-3 double play to close out the sixth inning and keep it a scoreless ballgame. His ability to execute in such a pivotal moment was a reminder of what makes Skubal one of the best in the business.

There is obviously a lot of baseball left to be played in this series, but those two inning-ending double plays could end up being series-altering moments when all is said and done for Detroit. Considering the bleak state of the Tigers’ offense at that time, Skubal effectively put an end to what could have been two game-ending offensive rallies by the Guardians.

Skubal put the exclamation point on his excellent outing in the bottom of the seventh, going three up and three down on nine pitches. Skubal hit 98 on the radar gun on his final pitch of the outing, finishing just as strong as he started.

Skubal’s performance kept the Tigers in this game, and thus kept them in this series. Across his two postseason starts, Skubal has not allowed a single run in 13 innings of work. He’s allowed just seven hits and one walk while punching out 14 in those two outings.

He’s as dominant as any right now, and he might not be finished leaving his mark on this series.

Looking Ahead to ALDS Game 5

The offense will need to step up if the Tigers are going to take down the Guardians. However, if the series makes it to Game 5, Detroit will have a big starting pitching advantage.

With a rest day between Games 2 and 3, and another following Game 4, Skubal could be back on the mound with regular rest for an elimination Game 5 on Saturday, should it be necessary.

Obviously, being able to pitch Skubal on regular rest twice in one series is an enormous advantage for the Tigers, and it speaks to just how important Monday’s victory was for Detroit’s chances in this series.

It has now turned into a best-of-three series from here on out, and the Tigers could have the best pitcher in the American League going for them in an elimination game. That certainly holds enormous significance when forecasting the rest of this series.

As for the Guardians, they failed to take the wind out of the Tigers’ sails in Game 2. They had a chance to steal a Skubal start away from Detroit, but they let the opportunity slip away from them.

It was a chance to bury the Tigers with their Cy Young pitcher on the mound. Instead, the series heads to Detroit with the momentum in the Tigers’ favor.

When projecting the pitching matchups for the remainder of the series, the Guardians could go in several different directions.

Veteran Alex Cobb will be Cleveland’s Game 3 starter on Wednesday. After that, manager Stephen Vogt has several options he could turn to in Game 4.

After starting Game 1 of the series last Saturday, Tanner Bibee could get the ball in Game 4 with regular rest after the off days on Sunday and Tuesday. Bibee impressed in his postseason debut in Game 1, providing 4.2 scoreless innings while striking out six.

The Guardians could also turn to Gavin Williams in Game 4, who would typically be the next starter up behind Cobb.

Whoever they don’t use in Game 4 will obviously be in consideration to take the mound in Game 5. Matthew Boyd, who started Monday’s matchup, could also be in the conversation for the final game of the series.

Boyd turned in a strong outing of his own in his first postseason start, pitching 4.2 innings of scoreless baseball while striking out five, walking two, and allowing four hits.

No matter how things shake out, the Tigers are in the driver’s seat if the series reaches that point. Being able to lean on Skubal for the second time in this series is a total difference-maker. He was untouchable for the vast majority of Game 2, and he could be the key to Detroit advancing to the ALCS.

The 2024 MLB postseason has delivered on all expectations thus far, and the Gritty Tigers will look to keep their magical run alive when they return to action in Game 3 on Wednesday.