Will 'Luck' Be on the Royals’ Side When the ALDS Shifts to Kansas City?

After a career year for the 34-year-old Lugo, who posted a 3.00 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP across 206.2 innings, his first-ever postseason start was a solid, albeit short, outing in Game 2 of the Wild Card series in Baltimore. He went 4.1 innings, surrendering one earned run on five hits and a walk while striking out six.

Lugo wasn’t at his best in his first start against this Yankees roster this year, but his most recent outing against the new-look Yankees lineup post-trade deadline was one of his best starts of the season:

Seth Lugo starts versus New York Yankees in 2024

His opposing starter in Wednesday night’s festivities, Schmidt, is a bit of an unknown quantity to this Royals lineup. They have not faced him yet this season.

Schmidt is coming off a strong regular season this year, with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP across 85.1 innings of work on the mound.

He is, however, coming off two of his more lackluster starts from an earned run standpoint, the two of which elevated his season ERA by nearly 50 points from 2.37 to 2.85.

Clarke Schmidt’s final two starts of the 2024 regular season

Not to diminish what Schmidt has done in 2024, as he’s been one of the more pleasant surprises of this Yankees roster, but I lean pretty clearly towards the potential 2024 AL Cy Young finalist in Lugo. He’ll be pitching at home, and I have to consider how dominant he looked against the Yankees just last month.

Game 4: Thurs. Oct. 10 at 7:08 pm CT

We’re slated for a Game 1 rematch in the second Kauffman installment of this ALDS, as Michael Wacha is set to go toe-to-toe with Gerrit Cole.

Wacha came ready in Game 1 and put forth a solid outing before he was lifted and his bullpen blew the game for him, putting him on the hook for three earned runs after four-plus innings of work.

The veteran righty put together a solid campaign in 2024, with a 3.35 ERA in 29 starts. And his numbers only look better at home.

In 14 starts at Kauffman this season, Wacha had a 2.89 ERA, nearly a full run better than his performance on the road; he posted a 3.78 ERA in 15 away starts.

His opposing starter, Cole, did not look overly sharp, apart from an efficient first inning, in Game 1 of this series. He ended up finishing the night with a stat line of four runs allowed (three earned) on seven hits and two walks with four strikeouts in five frames.

Cole, however, has been significantly more effective this season when not playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. In nine starts at home in 2024, he posted a 4.31 ERA and a .240 opponents’ batting average. On the road, his ERA dropped to 2.49, and his opponents’ batting average to .198 in eight starts.

A pitcher of Cole’s caliber will seldom not have the advantage in any given matchup. However, after his struggles in Game 1, I don’t feel his starts can be considered the automatic penciled-in win that many may have thought heading into the postseason.

The Royals Still Must Be Wary of the Yankees, Even at Home

Getting a win on the road before heading home is big for any team, but for the Royals, it could be exactly what they need to further insert themselves as an upset threat in this series.

The difference between their home and road records is often brought up when analyzing this team. Kansas City was tied for MLB’s ninth-best home record in the 2024 regular season at 45-36 compared to a tie for the 13th-best road record at 41-40.

The fact the Royals now have home-field advantage in this series could be huge for a team looking to wrap things up without having to head back to the Bronx for Game 5.

As a lineup, their offense has been noticeably better at home than on the road in almost every statistic other than home runs:

Royals offensive home/road splits in 2024

The waterfalls of Kauffman Stadium will be a sight for sore eyes for the Royals’ two struggling stars, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino, who’ve both gone hitless in the opening two games of the series.

Witt thrived at home this season, posting a .382 AVG and 1.117 OPS with 14 homers and 57 RBI.

On the road though, while still posting all-around respectable totals, he was noticeably less productive, as he produced a .284 AVG with an .844 OPS.

Pasquantino is in the exact same boat as Witt in 2024. He holds a .291 AVG and .812 OPS at home compared to a .233 AVG and .706 OPS on the road.

If these two can suddenly get hot and their supporting cast, led by Salvador Perez, Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel and Michael Massey, can stay on the roll they’ve been on this ALDS, then it could spell troubles for the Yankees.

That being said, if anyone is equipped to take on a Royals team that’s stronger at home and currently carrying the series momentum, it might just be the Yankees.

New York held MLB’s best record on the road this season at 50-31, making them the only team to eclipse the 50-win mark on the road. They were one of only five teams to post more than 45 road victories.

And despite Kauffman Stadium not nearly having the perks, like the right field short porch, that Yankee Stadium possesses, scoring runs in Kansas City has not been an issue for New York this season.

In a four-game road set from June 10-13 earlier this year, the Yankees’ offense managed to outscore Kansas City 28-12 while picking up a 3-1 series win.

It’s also important to note that this strong Yankee road team will be up against Royals pitching that has actually performed better away from home as a whole this season.

Royals pitching home/road splits in 2024

While the Royals should feel confident with two of their best in Lugo and Wacha getting the starts the next two games, this could certainly be something to watch for with a bullpen that’s shown major vulnerabilities in this series, specifically in that very rough outing in Game 1.

So, Is Luck on the Royals’ Side?

At the end of the day, whatever the matchups or home and road splits look like, any team would rather be in the familiar environment of their home ballpark playing in front of their fanbase for high-stakes postseason games. And in this case, there should be no exception, regardless of how good the Yankees might have been on the road this year.

The Royals have two of their “big three” set to start on the mound this series, which is something to take comfort in knowing they’re putting their best foot forward against the cream of the crop in the American League.

And for an offense that is receiving great outputs across the board this series, apart from Witt and Pasquantino, coming home to a stadium where they’ve hit so well might be the recipe for success to build on their current momentum, especially if Witt and Pasquantino can rebound and perform like they did in Kansas City all season.

But again, coming home is not all green grass and sunny skies for the Royals, as even though any team wants to be playing postseason games at home, we can’t discount the fact that the Yankees are great on the road and the Royals’ pitching has been better away from Kauffman.

All in all, this has been a thrilling series and has the makings to be just as thrilling with a scenery change.

This two-game slate in Kansas City will be telling as to whether the Royals truly got lucky in Game 2 or whether they have what it takes to send the Yankees packing.