Decisions Loom for Pirates on Arbitration-Eligible Relief Pitchers

A Geeky Look at Bednar

Bednar throws a four-seam fastball, a splitter, and a curveball. A deeper dive into his peripheral stats shows that, aside from the results, he wasn’t a different pitcher in 2024. He continued to rely primarily on his four-seamer, throwing it 55.5 percent of the time. The average usage of the pitch from 2021-23 was 55.8 percent. The pitch averaged 97.2 mph in 2024, which was faster than it had ever been. Bednar left fewer pitches over the middle of the plate in 2024. He left 27.9 percent of pitches over the middle of the plate horizontally in 2024, compared to 31.1 percent in 2023. Furthermore, 20.9 percent of his pitches caught the middle of the plate vertically in 2024, versus 22.3 percent in 2023. If anything, it seems the four-seamer was better in 2024.

What changed was increased usage of his split-finger pitch and a corresponding decreased usage in his curve. His walk rate increased to 10.7 percent after coming in at 7.6 percent for each of the two preceding years. Part of his issues may have been related to his injury which left him with inadequate time in spring training. Finally, left-side tightness sent him to the injured list on June 23. Bednar’s issues may also be a matter of the hitters having adjusted to him. He can use the offseason to ponder that and adjust back. Except for the walk rate (and, of course, the end results), there’s nothing alarming in the final analysis. Bednar earned $4.15 million in 2024.

Prediction: The Pirates won’t mind giving their star arbitration-eligible relief pitcher the raise that will be forthcoming.

A “Hell(er)” of an Easy Decision

Ben Heller, 33, pitched in just eight games, covering 12 innings for the Pirates in 2024. He gave up 15 earned runs in those 12 innings. The right-hander was much better in the minors in 2024. Pitching in Single-A Bradenton and Triple-A Indianapolis, he had a 3.16 ERA and 0.946 WHIP. However, he has enticed with his minor league numbers before. His career minor league stats reflect a 2.95 ERA and 1.097 WHIP over nine seasons. However, for his major league career, he has a 4.65 ERA, 1.516 WHIP, 5.25 FIP, and 4.6 walks per nine innings. His salary information is not available.

Prediction: Given that Heller isn’t a significant upgrade over a minimum-salaried rookie, the Pirates won’t tender him for 2025.

Colin the “Hold(er)” Man

Hey, it’s not easy to come up with these headings! Holderman, the eighth-inning specialist, was 3-6 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.305 WHIP, and 21 holds. Those numbers aren’t horrible. However, by June 22, he had an ERA of 0.68 with 13 holds. Then he ran into problems – big problems.

From July 23 to August 7, he was 0-5 with an 8.22 ERA, as opposing hitters slashed .371/.440/.694 against him. The timing couldn’t have been worse, as Bednar had just gone on the IL. It turned out that Holderman was trying to pitch through an injury of his own. Finally, on August 8, he went on the IL with a right wrist sprain. He returned on September 1. During that month, his ERA was 1.93 with six holds, while holding opposing batters to a .161/.316/.194 line. Holderman, a 29-year-old right-hander, made $755,000 in 2024. He’s been a reliable bullpen option since he arrived from the New York Mets in a 2022 deadline deal.

Prediction: As a low-cost relief pitcher who produces results, the Pirates will tender this arbitration-eligible pitcher.

It’s Not Over for Oviedo

Like Holderman, right-hander Johan Oviedo, 26, came to the Pirates in a 2022 deadline deal, except that he came from the St. Louis Cardinals. He missed all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. All 39 of his Pirates appearances have been in a starting role. However, he’s included here as a possible candidate for a bullpen role for two reasons. The competition for a berth in the rotation might be steep if many of the Pirates’ pitching prospects are ready in 2025 as expected. Besides, the Pirates may proceed carefully with Oviedo, given that he’s bouncing back from surgery. In 2023, he was 9-14 in 32 starts, with a 4.31 ERA, 1.373 WHIP, and an NL-leading one complete game shutout. Oviedo made $765,000 in 2024.

Prediction: Given that Oviedo has flashed potential and shouldn’t be expensive, he’ll be tendered for 2025.

The Find

That’s a good way to describe right-hander Dennis Santana, 28, a June 11 waiver pickup from the New York Yankees. A better way might be to call him the Pirates’ revenge for the Clay Holmes trade. For the Yankees in 2024, Santana had a 6.26 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 23 games. He also had a rather shocking 3.94 FIP, which indicates his Yankees teammates were no help to him at all. Whether the analytically hip Pirates’ brain trust noted his FIP or liked something else about him, they certainly unlocked what he had. With Pittsburgh, Santana had a 2.44 ERA and 0.925 WHIP, aided by a 21-game streak without allowing an earned run.

Eventually, manager Derek Shelton trusted Santana enough that he used him to get the save in Chicago on September 2. In his postgame remarks to the press on September 4, Shelton called Santana his best reliever. Santana’s 2024 salary information is not available, but we know he earned $1 million in 2023.

Prediction: Santana will be tendered a contract for 2025.

The Last Word

None of the above is to suggest that the Pirates will solve their bullpen problems simply by tendering four arbitration-eligible relief pitchers. Cherington has much work to do in the offseason. This is just one small part.