The Early Outlook for the Phillies Starting Rotation in 2025

The outlook for the Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation in 2025 is, at this point, very similar to 2024. Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, and Aaron Nola are all under contract through at least through the 2027 season. Ranger Suárez is free agent-eligible after the 2025 season. Unlike other areas of the team, the starting rotation will not drastically change in 2025. Working on an extension for Suárez is the main offseason priority in this area. The Phillies have one of the best starting rotations and baseball and they should keep it that way. With pitching coach Caleb Cotham returning, the Phillies rotation should be able to pick up where they left off in 2025. Outside of the fifth starter role, there is not a glaring issue with the rotation. 

In 2024 Phillies starting pitchers had a 65-43 record with a 3.81 ERA, which ranked as the eighth best in baseball, and 851 strikeouts. Additionally, the Phillies had a major league-leading five complete games and four complete game shutouts. Wheeler had an NL Cy Young Award-worthy season, with a 16-7 record and a 2.57 ERA in 32 starts. He also had a 3.13 FIP and a major league-leading 26 quality starts. Suárez had a very good first half of the season before an injured list stint that led to a decline in performance in the second half. Sánchez had a breakout season, pitching a career-high 181 2/3 innings. The Phillies should monitor his innings in 2025 after increasing his career-high figure by 82 1/3 innings. 

Phillies Starting Rotation Outlook for 2025

Fifth Starter Role

The Phillies need to move on from Taijuan Walker this offseason. Andrew Painter, currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League, is a candidate to be the Phillies’ fifth starter in 2025. Matt Gelb of The Athletic believes that at a minimum, Painter will pitch in the majors for the Phillies sometime next season. Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski echoed that sentiment while speaking to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com when the team announced that Painter would be participating in the Arizona Fall League. It remains an open question when Painter would make his big league debut. Despite his not having pitched in Triple-A, it is too early to rule out him making the Phillies 2025 Opening Day roster.

Spencer Turnbull is a free agent this offseason. The Phillies should make an effort to re-sign Turnbull. Having him hold the fifth starting spot until Painter is ready would be a good plan. Turnbull had a 3-0 record with a 2.65 ERA in 17 major league outings this season. Kolby Allard, who is out of minor league options, is another candidate for the role until Painter is ready. Allard had a 2-0 record and a 5.00 ERA in seven major league appearances this season. Walker remains an option as long as he is still on the Phillies. There are two years and $36 million remaining on Walker’s contract, meaning the Phillies will likely need to absorb at least some of the remaining money to facilitate a trade.

Potential Additions

On September 29, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Phillies remain interested in trading for Chicago White Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet. That trade would come at a cost for the Phillies. It would also block Painter in 2025 or indicate the Phillies have no intentions of extending Suárez. Expect the Phillies to add a starting pitcher in free agency or through a trade if Turnbull does not re-sign with the team. That pitcher will not be on the level of Crochet in all likelihood. Based on the available information, the White Sox seem to have an unreasonable asking price for Crochet, who became a starting pitcher in 2024 after previously being a relief pitcher for three seasons. 

There are a few free agent options for the Phillies to replace Turnbull if he were to leave. One such option is Alex Cobb, who had a 2-1 record and a 2.76 ERA in three starts with the Cleveland Guardians this season. While injuries prevented Cobb from pitching much during the 2024 regular season, he did make the All-Star team in 2023. He has a 24-19 record with a 3.75 ERA as well as a 3.29 FIP and a 111 ERA+ since 2021. If the Phillies were to sign Cobb, a one-year deal would be more likely than a multi-year deal. He is now 37 and has played 13 major league seasons. Regardless of who the Phillies might sign for this role, a one-year deal is likely.