How the Rockets Can Leverage Doubles on Sengun

Jokic drawing so many doubles is slightly surprising since he’s such an elite passer, averaging 9.0 assists per game last season. That kind of playmaking potential would theoretically make defenses reluctant. Unfortunately for them, though, Jokic is such an elite finisher in the post that doubling is still the best option. Sengun is also applauded for his passing acumen. So, were he and the Rockets able to punish the Pelicans for doubling?

Sengun’s final stats for the game initially point to no. In particular, he had only three assists to three turnovers and got up only six shots despite playing 28 minutes. But much of that was due to three distinct scenarios.

Explaining Sengun’s Boxscore

Scenario one was that the defense overloaded to prevent Sengun from getting the ball either on the block or the short roll. This is happening in the preseason. After Sengun’s break-out, near All-Star year in 2023-24, most teams across the league will be attempting a similar ball denial strategy in 2024-25.

Scenario two was that Sengun got the ball, was almost immediately doubled, and made the basic read to pass back out. In many cases, that player attacked the closeout, drew additional help, and made a pass of their own. These are the kinds of hockey assists that stars make all the time, especially ones who aren’t elite passers. They don’t show up on a conventional box score other than through plus/minus, which can be compromised by various other factors. Sengun’s in this game was a healthy plus 12, incidentally.

The thing is, Sengun is billed as being an elite passer. Obviously, even elite passers create hockey assists as well, but they will also manipulate defenses to create more immediate payoffs or even attempt more aggressive passes straight away. Sengun is notably less aggressive as a playmaker under Udoka, though. This has dramatically reduced his turnover rate, which went from 17.3% in year two to 12.5% in year three. However, it may also handicap him from reaching his full potential.

The Problem Scenario

Scenario three was that the offense failed to capitalize on the double. This can also happen in a variety of ways. Shooters can miss open shots. Jabari Smith Jr had a quick trigger in this game but finished having gone 0-5 from three. Fred VanVleet and Cam Whitmore were also off. Those three were probably Houston’s most reliable shooters from last season. Sometimes, shots just don’t go down.

More problematically, Houston still tends to bail defenses out with minimal off-ball movement and indecision on the catch. However, one player who paired nicely with Sengun against the Pelicans, though also played well without him, was rookie Reed Sheppard. While Sheppard also shot poorly from three on the night, his read on the game was on full display. Sheppard-Sengun units should become a staple of the Rockets’ rotation throughout the season. They might not pad Sengun’s numbers enough to justify an All-Star bid, but hockey assists are still a way to win basketball games. Sheppard is the ideal player to help Sengun get the ball in the net.

Another Approach

Sengun did use another strategy to mitigate double teams a few times against the Pelicans. That was to attack early down the middle of the lane in semi-transition. This had mostly positive results for him, though promising rookie Pelicans big man Yves Missi did manage to block him from behind on one such foray. It’s by a similar means that Embiid evades being a top-three most doubled player. Embiid tends to attack before the double has a chance to materialize. Of course, it’s easier for Embiid to do that since he can just pull from midrange and shoot over any primary defender in the league. Still, attacking early is a situational tool that could help Sengun immensely.

The Rockets’ first unit seemed to have an increased urgency in transition overall. Last year, it played at a notably ponderous pace under the careful stewardship of VanVleet. Of the 25 most played line-ups last season, the Rockets starters were the seventh slowest in pace. That’s not necessarily a bad thing when you have a player like Sengun to run your offense through. Jokic’s Denver Nuggets play at one of the slowest paces in the league to maximize the impact of their gigantic floor general.

The Last Word

The Rockets are not the Denver Nuggets, though. They struggle to capitalize on the defensive attention that Sengun draws in the post or the short roll. Partly, this is due to a lack of consistent shooting. Partly, it’s due to their uncoordinated style of play. Sheppard is someone who could help with both. Houston’s young star Jalen Green, having a figured-it-out season, would be a revelation. Some of it is just going to come down to Sengun himself, though. The Rockets have an advantage in a player who draws doubles at a top-three rate in the league. If they want to be a top-ten team in the Western Conference and earn a spot in the play-ins, they’re going to have to figure out how to leverage it.