Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are happening and gives our predictions for each one, breaking down head-to-head matchups and other factors that may play in. Today, we are looking at an afternoon game on the holiday Monday of the Thanksgiving Day weekend in Canada. It features the Los Angeles Kings as they travel to Ottawa to take on the Senators. Be sure to check out more NHL predictions as the 2024-25 season wears on.
Time: 1:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: TSN5, RDS2, ESPN+
2023-24 Regular Season Series: Ottawa lost (0-1-1)
Ottawa back at home, after Saturday’s loss to Montreal and on the holiday Monday, would love to get in the win column. The fanbase seemed concerned some of the bad habits from years gone past have snuck into their game. Costly turnovers or a lack in confidence of their defensive alignment or structure are the type of things people may point to. However, people must keep in mind that Ottawa is a well constructed team, top to bottom in 2024-25.
The #Sens have recalled goaltender Mads Sogaard on an emergency basis from the @BellevilleSens.
Les #Sens ont rappelé Mads Sogaard des @BellevilleSens.
— Sens Communications (@Media_Sens) October 14, 2024
Tim Stutzle has started the season red hot with three goals thus far. Their Vezina-calibre goalie Linus Ullmark has been on form with a .914 SV%, having played every minute for the Sens so far. However, Mads Sogaard is called up on an emergency basis. It is assumed that it is from Ullmark missing practice yesterday and has had some sort of nagging injury from the preseason. Even with the call-up, look for regular backup Anton Forsberg to draw in. In contrast, make sure you confirm your lineups before locking in fantasy starters.
Moreover, the Sens do need to clean up their own end, and not get exposed on the attack with defensive zone turnovers or being caught with Travis Hamonic out there against the Kings’ top players. Furthermore, the Sens are still waiting for others to get going, like Brady Tkachuk and Joshua Norris. If the Sens can make good on more of these things than not, the scoreboard should favour them at the end of the game.
The Los Angeles Kings are dead in the middle of the five-game, Atlantic Division road trip to begin their 2024-25 regular season schedule. Like the Sens, they are relying on their starter to keep things on track. Darcy Kuemper has posted a .948 SV% through his club’s first two contests. Anze Kopitar has three goals already on this young campaign. Finally, their penalty kill has been on point, at 100%.
Very similar to the Sens, they are looking for some of their depth forwards to get firing. For example, Adrian Kempe has season goal totals of 35, 41, and 28 over the past three NHL seasons. He is yet to hit the back of the net, with only three shots directed on target. A player to watch out for, is one of Stutzle’s fellow 2020 draft class, Quinton Byfield. Byfield has started 2024-25 where he left off 2023-24, as he already has two assists. Last year he hit career-highs, with 20 goals and 55 points.
If L.A.’s skilled forward group is able to pressure the Ottawa defence, it might make for a long day for Ullmark. However, Ottawa is excited with the potential this season. Their forward group has enthusiasm, and when they get going, can score on all four lines. Whoever gets the drop, and is able to establish a strong forecheck will walk away with today’s game.
Prediction: Senators win in regulation, 5-2.
If you are looking for some prop bets, according to Fanduel, Quinton Byfield as a first time scorer at +2100 pays well. If you want to mix in a couple anytime scorers, Adrian Kempe at +180 and Shane Pinto at +310 would be our choices.
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