Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are happening and gives our predictions for each one, breaking down head-to-head matchups and other factors that may play in. In this edition, the Philadelphia Flyers finish their road trip up north in Edmonton, facing the Oilers for the first time in this young NHL season. Be sure to check out more NHL predictions as the 2024-25 season wears on.
Location: Rodgers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
TV: NBCSP, Sportsnet, ESPN+
2023-24 Regular Season Series: Flyers and Oilers split (1-1)
The Flyers opened their season with a shootout victory against an adamant Vancouver team. The team picked up right where they left off. Returning the same style of play they put on display last season. One that includes getting lots of pucks to the next, and protecting the house on the back end. Philadelphia fired 31 shots on net, getting two passed the Canucks goalie, with two shootout goals to add on after overtime. This style of play can benefit Philadelphia in this matchup as Edmonton struggles on the back end and in goal. Through three games, the Oilers are winless with a -12 goal differential, the worst in the NHL by six goals. Their goalies have a combined save percentage of .783 while letting up five goals against on average through three games this season.
Through their first two games, Philadelphia has found the back of the net five times on 71 shots. If they can maintain this high volume of pucks towards the net, they have a legitimate chance of taking this game. Although Edmonton has much more star power, they have an inability to defend, and a weak goaltender. These two weaknesses play right in Philadelphia’s favor, and if they want to win, they must capitalize on their chances.
Edmonton comes into this game hungry for their first victory of the season. The Oilers dropped their first three games of the season, only scoring three total goals. They have two of the best forwards in the league with the tandem of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and they are looking to them for some production on Tuesday. This tandem gives Edmonton a chance to win every night because of their offensive ability. However, McDavid and Draisaitl have been held to just three combined points in their first three contests. This is very alarming for a Flyers team that has not fared well against this duo, since it’s inevitable that they will wake up and start filling up the stat sheet.
McDavid plays with a big chip on his shoulder when facing Philly. In his rookie season, McDavid was sidelined after breaking his collar bone against the Flyers. Since then, he has made them pay for it every time he’s lined up against Philly. In 15 games against the Flyers, McDavid has 31 points (11 Goals, 20 Assists), averaging just a hair over two points per game. Draisaitl’s numbers against Philadelphia are also very impressive, with 21 points (8 Goals, 13 Assists) in 15 games as well.
Philadelphia’s defence is up for the test against the Edmonton attack. On the other side of things, Edmonton’s struggling goaltending is up for a real challenge against a squad that loves to fire pucks on the net. This matchup is between two teams looking to get in the win column. Expect to see a high-scoring affair with Edmonton’s offence ready to explode in front of the home crowd. And Philadelphia’s ability to get a high volume of shots on goal against a struggling goalie unit.
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers 5 – Philadelphia Flyers 4
If you are looking for some prop bets, according to Fanduel, Connor Mcdavid to score the first goal has great odds at +1100. Draft Kings has Edmonton to Score first at -200, we think that’s a safe play.
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