Cubs’ Math Gaffe Could Impact this Offseason

After missing the playoffs yet again, the Chicago Cubs face mounting pressure to put a more competitive team on the field in 2025. Fans hope that salary cap considerations won’t factor into roster movies. However, based on past history, that won’t be the case. The Cubs seem to want to get right up to the cap and stop. And, well, to put it bluntly, they messed up in 2024.

It seems the Cubs went about $280,000 over the cap. That might not seem like a big deal, and it doesn’t make a lot of difference for 2024, but going forward, it does. The MLB 2025 luxury tax threshold is $241 million. The Cubs figure to have room to work under that figure but if they go over it, they will pay a repeat offender penalty. If a team goes over the luxury tax threshold for one season, there is a 20% tax. If they go over it for a second consecutive season that goes to 30%. A third season raises that to 50%.

So, by going over the luxury tax by such a small margin, the Cubs got the worst of both worlds. They didn’t spend enough to help the team, but they spent too much to stay under the luxury tax. The spending strategy of staying just under the tax threshold mirrors their strategy on the field of staying just under the playoffs.

What a coincidence.

What does that mean for 2025?

Honestly, not a whole lot. While Cubs’ fans wish the team would act like a big market operation, it probably won’t. Tom Ricketts is unlikely to spring for the very cream of MLB free agency. His is more of a half and half approach. Which is why Japanese free agent pitcher, Tomoyuki Sugano makes sense. His salary figures to be in the ballpark of the $16 million Kyle Hendricks made last year. Salary wise, that could be mostly a lateral move, though if the bidding gets fierce, Sugano’s salary could creep up a bit.

The Cubs will get some salary relief by other contracts coming off the books. Trey Mancini‘s albatross of a contract comes off the books after 2024. That was $7 million poorly spent in 2024. The Cubs also unloaded Hector Neris before his contract could vest. In addition, I doubt that Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom will be back.

The elephant in the room is whether Cody Bellinger will opt out of his contract. If so, that would free up almost $27 million for the Cubs to use elsewhere. If he stays with the Cubs, it’s not catastrophic. He’s still a good ballplayer, albeit an overpaid one.

When Jed Hoyer addressed Bellinger’s situation at a recent press conference, he said Bellinger had a lot of options. Hoyer sounded like a guy who hoped Bellinger would use one of the options that involved him leaving the Cubs.

The Cubs will put a premium on these guys…

Fortunately for the Cubs, some of their foundation pieces are young and cheap. First baseman Michael Busch and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstong’s relatively low cost enables the Cubs at least some flexibility in the free agent market. The same can be said for Justin Steele.

Also, because of the Cubs’ frugality (cheapness?) Matt Shaw figures to be playing with the Cubs as opposed to being used in a trade. That means somebody is probably going to be moved. Dansby Swanson‘s contract makes him immoveable, and Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have no-trade contracts. As was just mentioned, Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong are young, good, and cheap.

I’m looking at you, Nico Hoerner and Isaac Paredes.