Officially, the Dallas Cowboys making the playoffs would be a surprise

The Dallas Cowboys aren't the team we thought they were. Oddsmakers seem to agree.

You see, entering the 2024 NFL season, the storyline for the team appeared to be very clear: A consistent winner in the regular season yet unproven as a contender and a team that consistently fell short in January football. 

Fast forward to Week 7, a much-needed bye for the Cowboys, and the story appears to be a different one. This is not a team thinking whether or not they'll deliver in the postseason. It's a team we're not sure will even make it to the playoffs in the first place. 

In fact, it would officially be a surprise if they made it. Yup, right now they're expected by oddsmakers to miss the cut. According to DraftKings, the Cowboys' odds of making the postseason sit at +185, meaning you'd make $185 out of a $100 bet. In contrast, you'd have to bet $175 to earn $100 if you bet on Dallas not earning a postseason bid. 

That's a major hit to the expectations around the Cowboys that does more than just reflect their current 3-3 record. More than anything, it goes to show the betting markets believe the team simply isn't good enough to overcome a tough future schedule that ranks as the 10th toughest in the league, per DVOA.

When you look at weekly betting spreads, the feeling is the same about the Cowboys.

Ben Baldwin, who does a great job covering the NFL through analytics, publishes what he calls an "objective power rankings," which is solely based on betting spreads for each week. In essence, his rankings are determined by "how many points a team would be favored by against an average league opponent in a neutral field." By this metric, the Cowboys rank 21st in the league.