Royals vs. Yankees prediction, pick, odds for ALDS Game 2 on Monday, Oct. 7

Royals vs. Yankees Game 2 Projected Starting Pitchers

Nick Martin’s Royals vs Yankees Preview

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Must-Win Game for Ragans

It’s hard to imagine the Royals coming back from 2-0 down in this series with Ragans unavailable for Games 3 or 4, and for that reason, this game feels close to a must win for Kansas City.

Ragans allowed no earned runs and just four hits in six innings of work versus the Orioles in the Wild Card Series. He was forced to leave the game in the sixth inning due to a hamstring cramp, but he should be fully ready to go on Monday pitching on six days’ rest.

In his last seven starts, Ragans has pitched to an ERA of 2.03, with a WHIP of 1.07. He has allowed an expected batting average (xBA) of just .166 in that span, and struck out 29.2% of batters faced.

One of those starts was at Yankee Stadium, and Ragans fared well allowing two earned runs and three hits across six innings.

Ragans has done a good job of limiting the long ball this season, allowing just 0.72 HR/9, which could be an important strength to lean on in this series.

Opponents have a miss rate of 32% versus Ragans this season, and 24% on pitches inside the strike zone. He can have command issues at times, but his elite stuff makes him a handful when he is locating relatively well.

The Royals were highly ineffective against left-handed pitching in the second half of the season. In 797 plate appearances, the Royals hit to a wRC+ of only 75, which ranked 27th in MLB and is by a wide margin the worst of any playoff team in that span.

New York Yankees Betting Preview: Carlos Rodon Set for Playoff Debut With Yanks

The Royals’ ugly results against left-handed pitchers should give Rodon a good chance of making a solid playoff debut for the Yankees.

Rodon enters in a great form, posting a 3.13 ERA over his last 10 starts of the season. His underlying profile is also highly convincing.

In those 10 starts, he pitched to an xFIP of 3.76, struck out 10.87 batters per nine and allowed an xBA of .221. He held an elite Stuff+ rating of 121, and a Pitching+ rating of 104. Batters made contact 71% of the time.

The Yankees bullpen projects among the best in baseball, and shut down Game 1 after a shaky start from Gerrit Cole. Over the last month, Yankees relievers hold the second-lowest xFIP and have fanned 11.01 batters per nine.

On offense, the Yankees were a lot less dominant against left-handed pitching than they were versus righties — but still were far more potent than the Royals. Since July 1, New York hit to a wRC+ of 110 versus southpaws.

Royals vs. Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis

After a thrilling 11 run shootout in Game 1, backing the under in a game featuring a low total at Yankee Stadium may not seem overly appealing.

But it looks like the play in this specific matchup given the dominance of both Ragans and Rodon in the second half.

Both offenses have also been significantly worse against left-handed starters, and the weather should make run creation tougher than normal.

At -115 I see value backing this one to stay under 7.5, and I would play it down to -120.

A small bet on Ragans to record a win also looks worthy of a play, or you could also consider backing him to record over 15.5 outs. A matchup versus the Yankees offers Ragans a good shot of working through the sixth inning — something he has done in five straight outings.

Ragans will provide a meaningful pitching edge over Rodon and most relief options in those innings, and +230 looks like a long enough number to take a shot on him getting the win.

Pick: Under 7.5 Runs -115 (Bet365, Play to -120), Ragans to Record a Win +230 (Bet365, Play to +220)

Moneyline

The Yankees are 44-37 at home this season and 76-58 as a favorite. Since 2006, the Yankees are 47-50 in the postseason (-17.6% ROI).

The Royals played to a record of 41-40 on the road this season and a mark of 36-47 as an underdog. They went 18-16 in games started by Cole Ragans this season.

Pick: Pass

Run Line (Spread)

The Yankees are 35-46 against the spread (ATS) at home. They are 62-72 ATS as a favorite.

The Royals are 44-37 ATS on the road and they are 46-37 ATS as an underdog. Kansas City is just 23-27 (.442) against the run line (-12.2% ROI) vs. top 10 offenses this season. 

Pick: Pass

Over/Under

Totals are 45-33-3 (O/U) at Yankee Stadium this season. Totals are 31-46-3 when Kansas is the away team.

Pick: Under 7.5

Royals vs. Yankees Betting Trends

• 89% of the bets and 76% of the money are on the Yankees moneyline.
• 95% of the bets and 93% of the money is on the game to go OVER.
• 77% of the bets and 72% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line (-1.5)

Royals Betting Trends

• Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals’ last 5 games

Yankees Betting Trends

• Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees’ 81 last games at home