Yankees vs. Royals prediction, pick, odds for ALDS Game 3 on Wednesday, Oct. 9

Yankees vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers

Justin Perri’s Yankees vs. Royals Preview

New York Yankees Betting Preview: Can the Bombers Get to Lugo?

The Royals return to Kauffman Stadium after an interesting open to the ALDS in New York. Arguments can be made that in each of the first two games, the less likely to win team came out victorious. Neither team showed incredibly sparkling efforts that would lead you to believe that either was firmly in control, but nonetheless, taking a game in New York was a massive victory for the Royals efforts.

They’ll return home to their fans for the first time this post season, after playing in Baltimore for the Wild Card series and finishing the season with two road series, Royals fans have not seen their team play in over two weeks. We have seen the energy of a long-awaited homecoming have real impact in the playoffs so far. Both the Padres and the Mets won their Game 3s in similar fashion.

Kansas City hands the ball to Seth Lugo, who was the most dominant pitcher of the first half. Lugo opened the season with a 10-2 record in just 15 starts through the middle of June. In those first 15 starts he owned a 2.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, but his predictive numbers foretold a decline. The 9.5% swinging strike rate was too low to keep runners off the board and his .224 batting average against wouldn’t last as he was leaving over 80% of runners on base.

Since mid June, Lugo has looked average: 6-7 in 18 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The left on base rate is close to 70% and the batting average against is at .235. That’s enough of a difference to predicate a change from elite to average, and validate what the expected metrics predicted. Much of his 4.7 WAR was developed in that first stretch and the Royals are hoping that is the version of Lugo they get tonight. He shut down this Yankees team for his single scoreless full length start since June, but the blow-ups in between the solid work has made him less reliable than he was early on.

Bobby Witt Jr. will have all eyes on him, as the young superstar takes center stage for the biggest games of his career thus far. He should perform well, as he has all season at home. He owns an insane 1.117 OPS (202 wRC+) at Kauffman this season compared to his .844 (134 wRC+) mark on the road. If the Royals win tonight, expect him to be a big part of the effort and for a vintage, early season Lugo performance.

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Pressure on Schmidt to Deliver

You might be able to feel some of the bias and excitement I have for this team and this game tonight. This is the biggest game the Yankees have played in a few years. They traded Micheal King, an arm they’d love to have right now, for Juan Soto, and the window likely wont get wider with only AL Central teams left in their way.

Bottom line, they need to make it back to Yankee Stadium for Game 5, and honestly, if they we’re smart, would go all in to win back to back here rather than save resources for the final game. I do not know what it is, but they are mediocre at home. They fold in the big moments, Aaron Judge doesn’t have the dog in him when the lights are on the brightest, and I’m expecting the dim Kansas City scene to activate him like the gremlins getting splashed with the tiniest amount of water.

Clarke Schmidt is on the mound for the Yankees and that is about the best arm they can muster up in the scenario. That’s not me being facetious, Schmidt’s 116 Stuff+ rating is better than both Gerrit Cole’s and Luis Gil‘s, and falls just short of Carlos Rodon’s for the season. Schmidt’s slider and cutter are excellent pitches and he rates in the top 94th percentile in called strikes plus whiffs. This is exactly who the Yankees need to have a great start on the mound tonight. If he’s on, he can shut down Kansas City.

Of course, the Stuff didn’t work out for Rodon, and Schmidt has allowed a few runs since being activated off the IL, but the hope for New York is that is can win behind a quality start level effort with ease. If there’s no offensive production for New York and this is another low scoring affair, they have failed and their season will likely be in the balance of luck, rather than the control the Yankees offense can command when they are actually making contact.

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis

This has been a very stagnant market. The opening moneyline of -120 for the Yankees moved to -115 quickly and has stayed there for most of the last 36 hours. The same is true for the total and spread.

For all that market conviction and stability, I have the Yankees priced much differently in this game and I’m happy to go down with the ship if I’m incorrect. This Yankees squad suffers consistently at home, I’ve seen it myself as a fan in attendance this season, and the numbers do not lie, either. The positive walk and home run environment of Yankee Stadium (16% and 24% higher than MLB average this season, respectively), with lessened hit rates (6% lower on both singles and doubles) creates a place where the benefit of the Yankees hitting prowess is effectively negated by the heightened ability of visiting teams to score.

Kauffman is the opposite, -17% on home runs and but +4% on singles and +23% for doubles, which make it the best doubles park in the MLB. The muscle of Judge and Soto surely won’t be impacted by the factors that lessened home run rates if they catch a ball cleanly, but the added help on base hits for the rest of the Yankees roster can not be understated. Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo, specifically, become different players away from Yankee Stadium — they add an average of 9 wRC+ points to their split when they leave The Bronx. That’s notable difference from your second level contributors.

It should be noted, too, that Seth Lugo felt the impact of pitching at Kauffman this season. 7-6 with 44 runs in 17 starts at home, 9-3 with 31 runs in 16 starts away. This is a home field disadvantage type scenario and the needle has moved the wrong way with the Yankees on the road. They should be priced closer to -135 by my calculations. In my opinion, the money line is the best way to ensure the edge gets home – as the team doesn’t care the score as long as they win, especially in the playoffs.

Pick: Yankees Money Line -115 (Caesars | Play to -122)

Moneyline

The New York Yankees might have technically relinquished home field advantage with their loss on Monday, but they’ve been so strong on the road that you can’t consider a departure from Yankee Stadium a disadvantage for this team. Their record away from home sits at a robust 50-31, which was the best mark in baseball by two games.

Maybe it’s the pressure of the New York media, or just how loud the fans are. There is not a soul in baseball who will tell you it is easy to play at the house Ruth built, or the one next door, but the change in location certainly shouldn’t be looked at as a disadvantage for New York.

The Royals did well at home, holding a 45-36 record at Kauffman Stadium, which was third behind the Guardians and for third in the American League. While that is a solid record, this Royals team was on the luckier side of Game 3, and if the Yankees offense starts to wake up in the pro-hitting environment down in Missouri, this game could get out of hand. I think the Yankees take back control in Game 3.

Run Line (Spread)

This is the Yankees all the way for me. Laying the -1.5 makes sense here. This team should have a very good chance to win by multiple runs if they are to win. They did so in 62 of their 78 wins as favorites. So while, with their 58 losses as favorites, that means they went just 62-72 ATS when laying -1.5, with a plus-money average on those lines, they were still profitable when you got the right number.

Tonight at +145 is a solid price for them to win by two, and should be taken seriously. Lugo isn’t in the form he once was and if the Yankees are able to successfully string hits together at Kauffman, their offense becomes leaps and bounds more dangerous than the same environmental benefit would have to a lesser Royals offense.

Over/Under

The way that you approach the total is probably highly correlated to how you think the game unfolds. The Yankees hold a 76-54-4 O/U record when favored to win a game. Their pathway to victory is often fueled by their big name sluggers hitting the ball out of the park, or off the wall for a double, at least.

The Royals, who have gone under in 8 of their last 10 games, will be seeking to win behind the arm of Seth Lugo in what will likely have to be another small-ball style win for the Royals, who simply do not have the power to match New York.

My lean is towards the Over. I think this is exactly the spot where the Yankees bats come alive and they make a big statement on the road. The Yankees scored 25 runs in three games in Kansas City earlier this year, tagging Lugo for four runs in the lowest scoring affair of that series.

Yankees vs. Royals Betting Trends

• 73% of bets and 82% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line
• 74% of bets and 76% of the money are on the over
• 69% of bets and 79% of the money on the moneyline are on the Yankees to win outright

Betting trends via our live, updating MLB public betting & money percentages page.

Yankees Betting Trends

• Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
• Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread

Royals Betting Trends

• The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Royals’ 81 last games at home

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