MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, preview for Oct. 12

Tigers vs. Guardians

LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) vs LHP Matthew Boyd (CLE)

The Tigers and Guardians will meet for the 18th and final time this season in a winner-take-all Game 5 and a spot in the ALCS against the No. 1 seed Yankees.

They’ll renew their Game 2 pitching matchup between presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal (2.70 xERA, 24.6% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+, 3.26 botERA) and former Tiger Matthew Boyd (3.10 xERA, 19.9% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 4.38 botERA), who excelled in a limited sample size (39 2/3 innings over eight starts) following Tommy John surgery.

Boyd pitched into the 5th inning in Game 2 — and you might expect a heavier dose of Cleveland’s bullpen in an elimination game. Still, the Game 5 lines currently sit in lockstep with the Game 2 closing odds. The Tigers closed as +110 consensus underdogs in Game 2, with Cleveland as -125 favorites, and the total for Game 2 opened at 6.5 (-105/-115) but closed at 6 (-110/-110).

I set the Guardians as -110 favorites and projected the total at 5.85 runs for Game 2, compared to projections of -112 and 5.84 runs for Game 5. As a result, my bet recommendations for Saturday remain about the same as they did on Monday: bet Cleveland to -103 or better and play the Under at 6 (+100) or 6.5 (-118). 

However, I also bet the Guardians’ series price (at -112) before Game 1. I’m not necessarily going to overexpose myself to this matchup, albeit at better odds and a decent-sized edge of greater than 5% (projected -112, 52.8% implied vs. +110 listed, 47.6% implied).

If you have a Guardians series ticket, play their moneyline small to +105. If you don’t have anything tied to this game yet, I’d bet 1u on Cleveland at +105 or better and reduce my sizing at odds between +104 and -103.

The Guardians need to figure out Skubal to win this series. The lefty dominated in Game 2 (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K, 33% CSW%), just his second outing against his division rival this season (7 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K on July 22).

With both teams facing a southpaw starter, Cleveland has the superior offensive splits, ranking 8th on the season (114 wRC+) and 11th in the second half (108 wRC+) compared to 23rd (88 wRC+) and 26th (82) for Detroit.

The Guardians also put the ball in play more consistently, ranking second in strikeout rate (18.6%) against lefties in the second half, while the Tigers had the highest strikeout rate (30.7%) against southpaws over the same span.

The Tigers will let Skubal pitch as long as he’s effective in this matchup.

Here’s how his Game 2 props (closing consensus odds) compare to his current Game 5 prop odds as of Friday night and his odds when he faced the Tigers in July:

• July 22: 17.5 Outs (-186/+135), 5.5 Strikeouts (+167/+125), 4.5 Hits (-150/+120), 1.5 Walks (-110/-120), 1.5 Earned Runs (-155/+110)
• Game 2: 17.5 Outs (-180/+130), 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120), 4.5 Hits (-125/-115), 1.5 Walks (+140/-200), 1.5 Earned Runs (+100/-140)
• Game 5: 17.5 Outs (-180/+127), 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115), 4.5 Hits (+110/-165), 1.5 Walks (+152/-210), 1.5 Earned Runs (-105 / -132)

Skubal’s Over 4.5 hits allowed prop closed between -165 to -170 in July (+120 to +125 to the Under) and -117 to -130 for Game 2 (+100 to -115 to the Under), yet the same prop is between +110 to +120 to the Over and -150 to -155 to the Under for Game 5. I’d take plus money on the Over.

The walks and earned runs props have also adjusted relative to July — accounting for decreased usage downside in a playoff blowup — but those lines are comparable between Games 2 and 5, while the hits prop has moved too far toward the Under.

Boyd’s Game 2 props closed at 12.5 Outs (-115/-120), 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120),  3.5 Hits (-110/-125), 1.5 Walks (+110/-155) and 1.5 Earned Runs (+100/-140).

As of Friday night, his strikeout market is only 3.5 (-110/-115), implying the outs market could be closer to 11.5 in the morning. Hunter Gaddis tossed 32 pitches in Game 4, and both Cade Smith and Tim Herrin worked for the second consecutive day and the third time in this series. Still, Cleveland’s bullpen will be aggressively deployed in Game 5.

On offense, the Guardians need to work counts, foul pitches off and drive Skubal’s pitch count up as quickly as possible to get into a Tigers bullpen that is likely fatigued after more chaotic games.

Detroit used four pitchers on consecutive days at home — Beau Brieske, Tyler Holton, Will Vest, and Sean Guenther — with Brieske and Vest also pitching behind Skubal in Game 2.

I’d still be happy to grab a live Under 7 or 7.5 if there’s early scoring; the Under is 25-15-1 (+$755, +18.4% ROI) in winner-take-all games (to finish a series of 3+ games) since 2005.

Zerillo’s MLB Predictions & Picks for Saturday, Oct. 12

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• Cleveland Guardians (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings (increase bet size if you don’t have a Guardians series ticket)
• Tarik Skubal, Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110, 0.1u) at BetMGM