Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, pick, odds for ALDS Game 5 on Saturday, Oct. 12

Tigers vs. Guardians Game 5 Probable Pitchers

D.J. James’s Tigers vs. Guardians Preview

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Skubal Presents Major Mismatch

Skubal was phenomenal against the Guardians his first time out, yielding three hits and zero walks. He pitched seven scoreless innings, after throwing six scoreless against the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series.

Skubal held a 2.39 ERA and 2.70 xERA in the regular season. He had an 87.4 mph Average Exit Velocity and a Hard-Hit Rate that ranked in the 84th percentile. He only walked 4.6% of batters while striking out more than 30%.

Since he can keep the ball on the ground (72nd percentile), and Cleveland has a contact-oriented offensive profile, Skubal is a major mismatch to keep the Guardians in check.

The Tigers held a 69 wRC+, 9.7% walk rate, and 31% strikeout rate against lefties in September. They could hit righties, but with Boyd on the hill, they may have issues.

They only had two bats above a .330 xwOBA off lefties, so the rest of the lineup could have trouble with Boyd and other southpaws in the Cleveland relief staff.

In relief for the Tigers, manager A.J. Hinch has multiple options behind Skubal. That said, he should throw at least five strong innings before handing the ball off to the bullpen.

Detroit’s bullpen only holds a 21.6% strikeout rate in the playoffs, but it does have a sub-7% walk rate.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Weak Offense in the Postseason

Boyd held a 2.72 ERA and 3.10 xERA in limited appearances over the regular season.

His Average Exit Velocity was nearly identical to Skubal’s, but his Hard-Hit Rate is around 38.1%. Boyd does not walk many (under 8%) and struck out over 27% of batters — he has a good matchup against a Detroit offense that swings and misses often against southpaws.

The Guardians had a 153 wRC+ in September against lefties, with a 9.7% walk rate and 21.5% strikeout rate. They only had 144 plate appearances against southpaws in that month, though.

In the playoffs, against both righties and lefties, they have a 73 wRC+. This is likely what the result may look like when they face Skubal’s wrath again.

In relief, the Guardians have a bevy of options, but at this juncture, the Tigers have seen Cleveland’s best relievers several times.

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis

Skubal is the ace in this game and should mow down the Guardians consistently. This very well could be a 2-1 ballgame with either side winning.

Bet the Cleveland Guardians’ team total under 2.5.

Pick: Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 (Bet to 2)

Moneyline

I have no play on the moneyline in this game.

Run Line (Spread)

I have no play on either side of the run line.

Over/Under

I have no play on the total.