NFL picks Week 7: The first predictions our expert made

I can’t tell you how happy I am.

I almost started Hot Reads picking this game at Under 36.5 but waited for 37.5. Now that we have the key let’s enjoy an ugly Thursday Night Under!

Do I really need to tell you why you should bet against Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler?

The Saints got obliterated by the Bucs‘ offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, allowing almost 600 yards. However, the Saints were in the top eight in defensive DVOA entering Sunday, and the Broncos‘ check-down offense is nowhere near Tampa’s.

Denver ranks in the bottom quarter in the NFL in both run and passing offense and was shut out at home against the Chargers in Week 6 until the fourth quarter. New Orleans’ offensive numbers, meanwhile, actually look good, but I have my doubts with the injuries to Derek Carr and most of its O-line.

The Broncos have a solid defense and entered the weekend in the top six in defensive DVOA in the run and pass. Star cornerback Patrick Surtain may be out with a concussion, but Saints wide receiver Chris Olave left their loss to Tampa Bay anyway.

Historically, when the totals are set at 38, the under hits 61% of the time. Since 2019, when the total is set at 37 or below, the under hits 73% of the time. Finally, since 2010, Thursday night unders that are listed at 40 or below have hit 74% of the time.

Get ready to ride the mineshaft down, and grab the key before it goes below 37.

Jets vs. Steelers Pick

Another primetime under? Don’t mind if I do.

Don’t get thrown off by the Steelers scoring 32 on the Raiders. They may have thrown for more than 300 yards but had three turnovers and a blocked punt that led to touchdown drives that consisted of seven, 30, and 33 yards.

Both defenses are in the top 12 in DVOA, while both offenses are firmly in the bottom 10. Pittsburgh’s defense is great, especially against the Raiders, and I don’t see T.J. Watt stopping anytime soon.

Aaron Rodgers is not moving well at all, and the Jets‘ offensive line is incredibly mediocre. The Jets are also committed to the run, especially on early downs, which plays perfectly into the Steelers’ top-five run defense.

Week 6’s "Monday Night Football" total between the Jets and Bills has already dropped four points and is still falling.

Remember when the Jets got gashed in Week 1 against San Francisco? They’ve only allowed 13.3 points per game since then. The pass defense has been especially good, and the run defense has been beatable, but Pittsburgh is still inefficient. Both teams want to run a lot, so expect a fast clock.

For both teams, the unders have a combined record of 7-3-1 this season. Not only that, games that aren’t on Thursday but are primetime, the under has hit 63% of the time.

Finally, when the total is listed at 37 or below since November 2019, the under has hit 73% of the time.

I’ve already made dinner plans for next Sunday night because I expect this to be a doozy. Grab this before the key number, 37, drops. This is only going in one direction.