Pictured: Navy quarterback Blake Horvath. Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.

Week 8 college football Havoc Rankings, pick: Why Charlotte vs. Navy holds betting value

Originally posted on Action Network | By Collin Wilson | Last updated 10/15/24

The Havoc Rankings logged another victory in Week 7, as Syracuse covered the number against NC State.

The Orange took advantage of three turnovers from the Wolfpack, while the defense also posted multiple sacks and tackles for loss.

NC State Quarterback CJ Bailey saw pressure on one of every four dropbacks, instigating the predicted Havoc from a Syracuse defense that creates chaos on 17% of snaps.

The Orange displayed all the characteristics of a Havoc-minded team to pull out the victory.

A Havoc rate includes tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups and fumbles on the defensive side of the ball. The offense has a similar prognosis, as Havoc Allowed focuses on tackles for loss allowed, fumbles, interceptions and the creation of uncontested catches. Pressure rates from PFF are also used on both sides of the ball.

Here’s a look at our updated Havoc Rankings for Week 8, including each head-to-head game.

Charlotte vs. Navy

Charlotte: 37th in Havoc & 120th in Havoc Allowed · Navy: 1st in Havoc Allowed & 68th in Havoc

A colossal matchup in the American Athletic Conference will take place when two AAC undefeateds in Charlotte and Navy meet in Week 8.

With a victory over Rice and East Carolina, the 49ers are in great shape to be a part of the postseason picture in the American.

However, Charlotte has struggled with making mistakes on offense, ranking 120th in Havoc Allowed. Alog with nine fumbles, the 49ers rank outside the top 120 in tackles for loss allowed.

Navy has caused 13 fumbles this season, and the probability that 49ers quarterback Deshawn Purdie turns the ball over more is high. The freshman has five fumbles on the season, most recently coming in the victory over the Pirates.

Navy has not been a stronghold defensively in terms of passes defensed and playing behind the line of scrimmage. However, the Midshipmen are the nation’s best team in Havoc Allowed.

Navy has allowed the fewest tackles for loss this season with a grand total of nine.

HAVE A DAY Blake Horvath

5 Total Touchdowns so far#AmericanWay x @NavyFB pic.twitter.com/rrCDZxsN4f

— The American (@American_Conf) September 21, 2024

Charlotte will not only struggle in creating Havoc on defense, but it will also have problems when it comes to putting any pressure on the Midshipmen offense. The 49ers sit outside the top 80 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards — two statistics needed to defend Navy’s offensive attack.

Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for Navy to win by 20, giving room to the early market of Navy -17.

Pick: Navy -17

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