MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds for Mets vs. Dodgers Game 3, Oct. 16

Buehler hasn’t pitched in more than a week – his last start came on Tuesday, October 8. He didn’t face the Mets this year.

The Dodgers used Brent Honeywell (57 pitches), Landon Knack (55 pitches), and Edgardo Henriquez (36 pitches) in long relief in Game 2. Their high-leverage relievers are well-rested, but the Dodgers need some length from Buehler to get to their bridge.

As a result, while I’m tempted by Buehler’s Under 14.5 Outs (+105 at Caesars) at plus money, I’m also hesitant to place the bet due to their lack of long relievers. If Buehler falls behind early, Roberts may leave him in to eat the innings regardless – as he did after settling down against the Padres.

Luis Severino (3.88 xERA, 13.3% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.84 botERA) hasn’t pitched since October 6 (Game 2 against the Phillies), but he’s tossed a pair of quality starts in the 2024 postseason and given the Mets some much-needed length (combined 12 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 10 K on 197 pitches).

Severino has used his sinker 27.4% of the time this postseason – a slight increase over his regular season rate (25%) for a pitch he only started throwing this year.

Severino’s strikeout rate dropped 8.8% between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, but he’s regained a quarter of that loss this season (+2.3%) while generating a 46% groundball rate – his highest since 2017 – and a 35% hard-hit rate – much more in line with his career average (36.3%) than his past two seasons (41.3% in 2022, 44.5% in 2023)

The Dodgers faced Severino once last season but have not seen him with the Mets. I’d imagine Carlos Mendoza will play things a bit more cautiously when Severino turns over the Dodgers’ lineup and faces their lefties a third time (3.94 xFIP vs. righties, 4.31 vs. lefties in 2024).

I’m interested in Severino under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110) at plus money. The Dodgers fully healthy lineup led MLB with a 133 wrC+ against righties over the final six weeks of the season, but they also lowered their strikeout rate to 19.1% (4th) compared to 22.8% (16th) in the four months prior, when several stars missed time.

I’d put the upside on Severino’s usage near 27 batters or three times through the order (which would equal roughly 5.2 strikeouts). Still, my average projection is closer to 22.5 batters (and 4.3 strikeouts).

I model the two bullpens about the same for Wednesday. The Mets had the better second-half metrics (7th in xFIP, 7th in K-BB%, 23rd in botERA vs. 19th, 18th, and 16th for the Dodgers), but the Dodgers best arms are more well-rested; Edwin Diaz, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek tossed 81 pitches combined to close out Game 2 for the Mets.

I rate the Mets as the slightly better defensive team — DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) prefers the Dodgers (4th vs. 14th), while OAA (Outs Above Average) prefers the Mets (11th vs. 19th). However, the Dodgers are better on the basepaths, and the Mets also rank in the bottom five of all teams by sprint speed.

I projected the Mets as -111 favorites for Game 3 – likely the only game I’ll favor New York in this series. Bet the Mets’ moneyline to -105.

I set the total at 7.05 runs and would bet the Under to 7.5 (-108). And if there is early scoring, I’d look for a live under as Buehler exits.

Despite my concerns surrounding a potential Buehler blowup, Wednesday’s chilly conditions (50 degrees at first pitch, eight mph winds blowing in from left field) should help to limit both offenses. This will decrease the run-scoring environment at Citi Field, which is typically pitcher-friendly, by more than five percent compared to a typical day.

Interestingly, FanDuel opened the total at 6.5 (-110/-110) after Game 2 before pulling that number down to repost 7.5 (-110/-110) – after other books opened at 8 (-110 / -110).

Zerillo’s MLB Predictions & Picks for Wednesday, Oct. 16

Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.

• Exact Series Order: G1 LAD / G2 NYM / G3 NYM / G4 LAD / G5 LAD / G6 NYM / G7 NYM (+2800, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Los Angeles Dodgers / New York Mets, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) & (-115, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to 7.5, -108)
• Luis Severino, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
• New York Mets (-104, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -105)