How to bet the Boston Celtics 2024-25 win total: Banner 19?

The start of the NBA season is just less than a week away. 

Boston Celtics

Bet/Lean/Pass: Celtics or nothing, strong lean but a pass.

Handicap

Boston over was one of my bigger positions last year, and was pretty much a breeze.

Boston is the most consistent great team in the league. Yes, they’re the defending champions with a stellar starting five and multiple All-NBA-caliber players. But the reason why they’re so trustworthy in the regular season compared to other great teams isn’t their talent or playstyle. They come prepared for every single game. Boston isn’t a try-hard squad like a Tom Thibodeau special, but they’re also not a team that takes a lot of games off and gets bored.

Maybe that changes after so many deep playoff runs (four conference finals appearances in five years) and after finally reaching the mountain top, but the combination of the age of their core and Joe Mazzulla’s commitment to process sets a floor that is higher than any other team’s in the league.

Kristaps Porzingis will be out to start the season, and not only is there no definitive timeline set for his return, but the Celtics can also afford to be patient without him. It’s easy to look at Porzingis being out and Al Horford being another year older and wonder if they’re more vulnerable.

But last season, without Porzingis, the Celtics went 21-4 without Porzingis last season. TWENTY-ONE AND FOUR. That’s categorically insane.

A few more stats on how incredible Boston was last season:

• Boston won 64 games last year despite going 6-7 in 3-point games. They didn’t even win the coin flips!
• Boston won 42 games by double digits. Think about that. Boston won half the games on their schedule by 10 or more points.
• Boston had the fifth-best SRS (simple rating system which factors point differential against strength of schedule). The four teams above them also won the title.
• Derrick White had the best net rating on-court among all starters, with the Celtics beating opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions with him on-court. What’s amazing is that’s only 1.5 points better than when White was on the bench. Despite a thin bench, the Celtics annihilated teams when the five starters weren’t on the floor together.

They return every piece of that rotation and Porzingis will be back sooner rather than later. They play in the weaker conference in a weaker division with the Nets’ transition to rebuilding.

Boston finished with the No.1 offense and No.2 defense last season. They averaged the most 3-point attempts and makes, and the second-highest percentage, while allowing the fifth-lowest 3-point attempts, sixth-lowest makes, and 4th-lowest percentage. Boston destroys teams with a math advantage.

While I have the Thunder power rated higher off their offseason moves, the Celtics are the best team and not just by virtue of their championship.

However… the trends below give all sorts of reasons why the Boston under is the play. The reality is that winning 55-plus games in the NBA is hard and doing it in back-to-back years is as difficult. If any team should, Boston should. But betting on it is perilous.