NHL odds and best bets for Sabres vs. Penguins, Bruins vs. Avalanche on Wednesday, Oct. 16

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Sabres vs. Penguins

The Sabres are off to a 1-3-0 start, and suddenly, we are seeing clips of their captain Rasmus Dahlin fighting teammates at practice. The Sabres (+106) may not look like an overly appealing bet right now, but the gap between them and the Penguins (-128) looks narrower than the current price suggests.

The kind of incident we saw between Dahlin and Peyton Krebs at practice doesn’t need to be viewed as a bad thing. It’s indicative of the kind of competitive level the Sabres have lacked in recent years, and it’s happened on plenty of successful rosters in the past (such as the 2018-19 Blues).

The Sabres’ overall game has actually looked quite strong in their past two matchups, though, and the desire to turn things around immediately feels palpable. They played well in a 5-2 win over the Panthers last time out, and they were probably even better despite a losing result one game previous against the Kings.

All four of the Sabres matchups have come against teams that will go to the playoffs this season; their other two games came against the Devils. In those four matchups, the Sabres hold a 52.8% expected goal share at even strength.

The Penguins, meanwhile, have roughly the same amount of question marks as the Sabres, including a goaltending situation that looks pretty iffy.

Tristan Jarry was a question mark entering the year after an ugly finish to the 2023-24 campaign. He’s posted an .868 save % thus far. Whether they do hand this start to Jarry or Joel Blomquist, the Sabres have a goaltending edge with either option in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi.

At +105 or better, I see value backing the Sabres to earn two much-needed points tonight.

Pick: Sabres (+114 at DraftKings)

Bruins vs. Avalanche

I don’t think anyone predicted this kind of start for the Colorado Avalanche. A 0-3 start with two losses by four goals? Considering the star power this team has, it’s purely baffling.

How is it possible that a team that is solid defensively, with high-end superstars up front, can lose that poorly?

It tells you everything you need to know about who’s in net. Alexandar Georgiev is a bad goalie, and he’s proven that he’s, at best, a backup netminder. Last season, he started over 60 games with a sub .900 SV% with a 5.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx). This season, he’s somehow gotten even worse with a horrid .790 SV% and a league-worst -7.7 GSAx.

I don’t even think Justus Annunen is that much better. He seemed like a viable replacement last season, but in two games played, he’s allowed four goals on 17 shots faced.

Tonight the Avalanche (-118) face the Boston Bruins (+102). Although they come into town with underlying numbers that don’t seem good, the B’s keep pulling out the stops. I wouldn’t be alarmed at the fact that they’re bottom 10 in both expected goals and xGA/60; both times they got beat were from the defending Stanley Cup champions in the Florida Panthers.

We also haven’t seen Brad Marchand light the lamp yet – while Elias Lindholm and Mark Kastelic (!) are leading the charge in Beantown. Through four games, I was not expecting Kastelic to have more points than David Pastrnak, but here we are. I don’t foresee that continuing, but the Bruins continue to be a factory of producing talent.

I think many didn’t know what to expect out of Boston, especially with the Jeremy Swayman situation looming. However, with Swayman back, I only anticipate the B’s getting better. It won’t be pretty for whoever is in net for the Avs.

Pick: Bruins (+102 at FanDuel)