Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS Game 3 prediction, picks, odds

Dodgers vs. Mets Game 3 Projected Starting Pitchers

BJ Cunningham’s Dodgers vs Mets Preview

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: All Red Flags for Walker Buehler

There are a lot of concerning signs for Walker Buehler right now, and I don’t think he would be in the starting rotation if essentially the entire Dodgers‘ pitching staff was hurt.

He got lit up for six runs against the Padres, and his fastball got him into trouble. The Padres had nine hard hits off him, and six of them were off of his fastball, which isn’t surprising given how poor he was with it during the regular season.

His fastball during the regular season allowed a .446 xwOBA to opposing hitters. He typically likes to throw it along with his cutter in on righties, but it hasn’t been effective because right-handed hitters have a .350 wOBA against him this season.

The few times he has pitched well have come at Dodger Stadium. Pitching on the road has been a complete disaster. In a little over 30 innings this season, he has a 5.24 xFIP and his walk rate is double what it is at home. The Mets were top 10 in walk rate over the second half of the season and also have the third-highest walk rate during the postseason.

I think what is interesting about this game is how quick of a hook does Dodgers manager Dave Roberts have for Buehler? He let him work through trouble in Game 3 against the Padres, but with the Dodgers having to play three straight days, I don’t think he’s going to want to tax the bullpen.

Outside of Game 2, the Dodgers bullpen has been lights out, as they went three full games without giving up a run. Even after giving up the six runs early in Game 2, the Dodgers only gave up one run for the final seven innings of the game.

The Dodgers’ bats will have to get going in this game. Their top of the order is going to have a good matchup against Severino.

If Severino mainly throws his fastball and sinker, that could be bad news as those are two pitches the Dodgers crushed this season. Shohei Ohtani, however, has been seeing a ton of breaking pitches and Severino has a really good sweeper that he can use to navigate the top of the order.

New York Mets Betting Preview: Luis Severino’s Secret Weapon

Luis Severino has pitched well this season after a disastrous 2023. He has complete control over his arsenal and has been really effective, posting a 3.81 xERA overall, but he pitched his best over the second half of the season.

Since the All-Star break, his xFIP has only been 3.60 and he’s raised his strikeout rate by almost 10%. The reason for that is his stuff got significantly better. His overall Stuff+ rating went from 103 in the first half to 113 in the second half, with the biggest jumps coming on his main two pitches: fastball and sinker.

However, those are two pitches the Dodgers crush, so don’t be surprised to see him throw his sweeper quite often. It’s an outstanding pitching, garnering a 158 Stuff+ rating and a 38.6% whiff rate this season.

Much like Buehler, the question with Severino is how long does he last in this game.

In Game 2 against the Phillies , Mets manager Carlos Mendoza made a big mistake letting Severino pitch the sixth inning — it cost New York the game.

That is because Severino’s numbers drastically get worse once he sees the order the third time through.

On top of that, he’s been much worse against lefties than righties this season, so if he’s allowed to see Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy a third time, that is a recipe for disaster.

The Mets offense should have a really good matchup against Buehler considering how well they’ve hit fastballs. New York was eighth in baseball this season with a .350 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs and had a .372 xwOBA against right-handed cutters, which was third best in MLB.

Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction, Game 3 Betting Analysis

In theory, both of these offenses should have decent matchups against the opposing starting pitcher, but the weather is not going to be the best for runs. It’s supposed to be sitting around 50 degrees at game time, with wind blowing straight in at 8 mph.

This is the first truly cold weather game the Dodgers have played since early April, so we will see how their bats respond to going from the sunshine of Southern California to the cold of Queens.

This is a pivotal Game 3 in this series and both managers need to take a lesson from what happened with both of these starting pitchers in their previous start. I am guessing the bullpens are going to be heavily involved and that neither of these starters are going to see the order a third time through.

Both bullpens playing matchups against the opposing offense for at least the final four innings potentially make this game a lower-scoring event. If that is the case, along with the weather, then this total is too high.

I only have 7.1 runs projected for Game 3, so I like the value on Under 8 runs at -118. It’s a small sample size, but Unders have been almost perfect in these cold-weather playoff games since 2019.

Pick: Under 8 (-118 via BetRivers) 

Moneyline

With the playoffs being unpredictable, I’ll pass on making a moneyline play.

Pick: Pass

Run Line (Spread)

The run line is set for -1.5 and I’ll pass on it.

Pick: Pass

Over/Under

It’s a cold-weather game, so don’t be surprised if this is a low-scoring affair. I’m picking the Under.

Pick: Under 8