NFL Week 7 pool picks advice: Strategy for Survivor & Pick’em

NFL Week 7 Survivor Picks: Two Popular Teams Standout

The Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills are set to be popular picks this week. Currently, we project Washington to have 35% pick popularity, with Buffalo close behind at 31% in survivor pools.

This scenario introduces an interesting dynamic in survivor game theory, where two teams share high pick popularity.
Looking at public pick data dating back to 2017, here are the weeks where the second-most popular survivor pick still held an average pick popularity of 29% or higher:

Across these 11 weeks, five resulted in both popular teams winning, five saw one of the popular teams lose, and one week had both teams  lose — wiping out over 80% of the pool.

What makes these weeks fascinating is the increased risk/reward dynamic. When two heavily favored teams must both win to prevent a large portion of the pool from being eliminated, the stakes are higher. For example, based on current betting odds, there’s about a 60% chance that both Buffalo and Washington win this week. This also means there’s a 40% chance that at least one of them loses.

That’s roughly equivalent to the odds of a team favored by a field goal losing. However, the difference is that when one small favorite loses, you typically don’t see over 30% of a survivor pool wiped out.

The potential advantage of avoiding both popular picks and capitalizing on an upset in either game explains why some teams, despite appearing riskier this week, offer good “expected value.” The possibility of a high upside in avoiding the popular duo makes other teams an enticing option this week.

Of course, if you choose not to pick one of the popular teams, the question remains: which team should you pick? The next three teams by spread and win odds — Rams, Bengals, and Jaguars — are a combined 4-13 this season. Market hesitation around these teams likely explains why pick popularity is concentrated on the Bills and Commanders.

You could go contrarian by avoiding both popular options or hedge by selecting one popular team while betting against the other, aiming to pick the right side if an upset occurs.

Check out our NFL Survivor Picks to see which teams we think are the best options for different pool types for Week 7 in your pool.

NFL Week 7 Pick’em Strategy: Targeting Early Unpopular Favorites

At the moment, there are two betting favorites that remain unpopular picks in pick’em pools. The Jets are 1.5-point road favorites against Pittsburgh, yet the public is heavily backing the 4-2 Steelers over the 2-4 Jets.

Not only is the public favoring Pittsburgh, but it’s doing so decisively, with 75% of picks siding with the Steelers. That’s similar to the public’s pick rate for Baltimore (-3.5) over Tampa Bay and even higher than the public’s backing of Green Bay (-3) at home against Houston.

Thursday night’s game presents another split between public opinion and oddsmakers. Despite Denver being the favorite, New Orleans is drawing 64% of public picks. This discrepancy is likely driven by the Saints’ injuries, as they could be without both starting wide receivers, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, due to the short week. Additionally, rookie QB Spencer Rattler is expected to start again in place of the injured Derek Carr.

There are two other instances where the public is backing the underdog at over 50% — Kansas City (at San Francisco) and Detroit (at Minnesota). However, both matchups feature near-even splits in win odds and popularity, making them closer contests.

So far this season, it’s been an even split when the public backs one side and the betting favorite is the other (with favorites always being less than a field goal). Unpopular favorites have gone 6-6 straight up, and the only pick’em upset so far was Arizona’s win over the Rams in Week 2.

Check out our Football Pick’em Picks product for specific recommendations for which other value picks make sense based on public popularity and the specifics of your pool.

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