NFL Week 7 picks for our free-to-play Taylor Swift Contest: Chiefs vs. 49ers spread, more

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Sunday Show Picks

Florida !!!

The last time Taylor took the stage we were all clowning for a Reputation (TV) announcement … and shocker … we’re doing that again heading into this weekend. I did put my clown nose away in August, but I am tempted to get it back out this week.

Don’t worry, none of the questions this week are about a potential Rep announcement. Instead, we’re guessing what Eras the surprise songs are from and if there will be any surprise guests on Sunday.

Surprise Songs

Now the scoring is a bit different when you guess the surprise songs. Not every Era is equal and so neither are the points you can win from guessing correctly. This makes it feel a bit more like betting — a bigger risk could equal a bigger reward.

You’ll have the chance to make two guesses with each guess being worth up to three points. Here’s the breakdown of what each Era is worth:

• 3 points: Taylor Swift, Folklore, Evermore, Other
• 2 points: Fearless, Speak Now, Reputation, Lover
• 1 point: Red, 1989, Midnights, The Tortured Poets Department

I assigned value based on how many times each Era has appeared during the surprise song set, including all of the mashups and also considered how often songs were played during the European leg of the tour. This site tracks everything and I highly recommend you check it out if you really want to research and make an informed decision. Here’s the breakdown by Era, including how many times an Era was used as part of a mashup.

I will likely wait to make my picks until after the shows on Friday and Saturday. I first want to see what songs are used during those shows and I’m also curious to see if the surprise sets are mashup-heavy as that may play into my decision.

A safe bet would definitely be The Tortured Poets Department as it’s her newest album and a TTPD song was played during the surprise sets in 18 of the last 48 shows (37.5%). Florence + The Machine joined Taylor as a surprise part of the Tortured Poets set for the last show in London, but Florida !!! hasn’t been played during the surprise song set yet. If it’s not played Friday or Saturday, I’d likely take TTPD as one of my surprise song Era picks.

I’m looking at the two- and three-point options for my second pick. This is where I’m curious to see if Taylor comes out playing mashups Friday and Saturday. Folklore, evermore, and the four Eras in the two point range have each been used between 14 and 19 times in the mashups. Because folklore and evermore are within that range, there’s value in taking one of those. Right now, I lean evermore depending on Friday and Saturday’s songs.

Special Guest

Will there be a special guest on Sunday? Well this is at least a simple yes or no question. A special guest will be considered anyone not typically part of the normal set list — so if Gracie Abrams, her opener, joins Taylor during a set, that would count. Taylor often has her openers join her for a song, especially if they’ve collaborated on a song together, and she has done so with Gracie twice already including playing their song us.

I’ll definitely be monitoring if any guests come out Friday or Saturday as that may sway my decision, but my hope is that Taylor is going to go all in for the final six legs of the tour and bring us some fun surprises.

Betting Picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl Rematch

Earlier in the day on Sunday, Taylor’s Lover and the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs will be facing the San Francisco 49ers in a Super Bowl rematch. The 49ers may also ring a bell for Swifties because Kristin Juszczyk, wife of San Francisco fullback Kyle Juszczyk, designed an amazing coat for Taylor for a Chiefs playoff game back in January.

Anyway, let’s get back to the game. This week we have three game related picks — the spread, the total, and a Travis Kelce touchdown prop.

The Spread: Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)

As a reminder, the point spread is a number set by oddsmakers almost like a “handicap.” It’s basically the expected final score difference. Teams with a + number are the underdog, and a – number means they’re the favorite.

For the first time this season, the Kansas City Chiefs are the underdog getting 1.5 points. So what does that mean? You’ll take the Chiefs if you think they’ll win or lose by less than 2 points, and you’ll take the 49ers if you think they’ll win by at least 2 points.

Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 straight up (this means he wins the game outright) as an underdog and 11-1-1 against the spread. The Chiefs are also coming off a bye week so they’ve had additional rest compared to their opponent.

The 49ers have been struggling a bit without star running back Christian McCaffrey. To me, it’s a no-brainer to back the Chiefs … and Simon Hunter of The Favorites agrees with that, making this game his official “Simon Says” pick of the week.

The Total: O/U 47.5

Next pick is deciding whether you think there will be over or under 47.5 total points scored in the game. As of Wednesday afternoon, both the amount of bets placed and the amount of money bet skews heavily towards the over.

If you want to go against the grain, the under is the way to go. I often do this when both the public and the sharps (professional bettors) are on the same side.

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown

The last game pick is whether or not Travis Kelce will score a touchdown. This is the first time Travis has had a scoreless September since his rookie season in 2013 when he only played in one game.

So one might say he’s due for a touchdown and I agree. He definitely started to look more like the Travis Kelce we all know the last two games before the bye week, so it’s going to be a yes from me this week.

NFL Week 7 Picks for Chiefs-49ers & Our Free Taylor Swift Picks Contest

To recap here’s what I’m thinking so far, but many of these are subject to change:

• Surprise Song Era: TTPD, folklore
• Special Guest? Yes
• The Spread: Chiefs +1.5
• The Total: under 47.5
• Travis Kelce Touchdown: Yes

Let’s have some fun this week… I know I’ll enjoy “betting” on the Eras tour! Good luck to all!