NFL Week 7 Luck Rankings picks: 3 games fit thresholds

Sunday, Oct 20 ,1 p.m. ET, FOX

Luck Total: +12.6

This NFC North clash has a Luck Total of +12.6, so it meets the first total criteria as a Luck Over. The current total sits at 50 at most books, but a few are still hanging 49.5.

The Vikings and Lions have for 457 points compared to 520 expected so far this season. That indicates that there’s plenty of room for these teams to have scored more points this season, so we should expect some regression point.

Both teams may have key pieces either missing on defense or returning on offense that should foster a higher-scoring environment. Unfortunately for the Lions, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson is out for the season, while the Vikings are hoping to get one of (or both) RB Aaron Jones or TE T.J. Hockenson back this week.

In addition, both QBs get positive coverage matchups by Fantasy Points’ coverage grade. Sam Darnold has been successful against man coverage, which the Lions rank in the top five in the NFL by playing around 40% of the time. Jared Goff also has fared well against man coverage and while the Vikings only play it at around a 20% clip, that’s fine. Goff has only faced man coverage about 23% of the time, which means he doesn’t really get hurt by facing more zone since he’s been facing it all year.

People may point to Goff’s splits against pressure, but Detroit has had a top-10 unit by Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking grade and a top-three unit by ESPN’s pass block win rate. The Vikings’ pass rush ranks sixth worst in grade and average by win rate.

I think Detroit will need to throw given the Vikings’ impressive run defense, and that will only help create a higher-scoring environment.

Verdict: Over 49.5 (Play to 50.5)

Titans vs. Bills

Sunday, Oct 20, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Luck Total: -11.9

Both Buffalo and Tennessee were involved in Luck Unders in Week 6. While Titans vs. Colts stayed under, Bills vs. Jets did not.

Crazy enough, despite staying under and only 37 points being scored in that Titans vs. Colts game, the Expected Score shows that game was lucky to produce even that many points. Expected Scores had the game as a 17-11 final. The Bills and Jets scored 43 points, which was the total of the game’s Expected Score.

On “Green Dot Daily” on Monday, I laid out all the reasons why I liked the Bills and Jets to stay under. A lot had to do with the Bills’ scoring luck, and that still applies here but for slightly different reasons.

Buffalo negated the pressure Allen faced by running right through the Jets’ front seven, but that won’t work against the Titans. The Tennessee defense ranks sixth in Rush DVOA while the Jets are 25th.

So, while Tennessee won’t provide the pressure the Jets did, it does have a favorable coverage matchup against Allen. He has always thrived against man coverage, but the Titans rank in the middle of the pack in man coverage rate. Instead, the Titans employ more than double the amount of Cover 4 that Allen has faced this year, and that has been the coverage he’s least successful against this season with an ANY/A of just 3.0.

If we add in the Titans’ second-most used coverage — Cover 3 — Allen has just a 5.1 ANY/A combined against the Titans’ two-most-used schemes that they play more than 50% of the time. Against all other coverages, Allen has a 10.3 ANY/A.

Using some quick math, Buffalo has 165 points scored this year, or 27.5 per game. The Titans have allowed 110 (22 per game). The league average is 22.5, so we’d generally expect Buffalo to score about 27. However, Buffalo’s Expected Score average is 22.6 while the Titans allow an average Expected Score of 17.1 points. That shows just how lucky the Bills offense and Titans defense (Tennessee has given up special-teams touchdowns and pick-sixes) has been.

One other luck factor: The Titans are nearly an unlucky side in this matchup with a Luck Gap of 42.8% and a Luck Difference of 21. They also have a 23.3% Scoring Luck deficit, which is the largest gap of the week. That means I’d lean toward Tennessee being more likely to cover the nine points in a game I’m projecting to go under.

Combining both luck factors and implementing my matchup analysis, I’m going to bet the Bills team total under. Buffalo’s Luck Team Total of -9.9 is the lowest of all teams in Week 7.

I grabbed under 25.5 (+100) at BetMGM on Tuesday. As of early Wednesday afternoon, FanDuel has the best line on Under 25.5 at -108.

Verdict: Bills Team Total Under 25.5

Bengals vs. Browns

Sunday, Oct 20, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Luck Total: -6.4

Man, I wish I had grabbed 44.5 on Monday. The total for this AFC Central clash has since plummeted to 42 or even 41.5. While I still show value on the under still, it just feels wrong to get a number that much worse.

The big news in this one is the potential return of Nick Chubb from an ACL injury that has sidelined him since early in the 2023 season. Chubb is unlikely to get a full workload, but his return may still help the Browns run game.

Either way, expect Cleveland to focus on the run to…

1. Keep the ball out of DeShaun Watson’s hands.
2. Keep the clock running to keep the game close.
3. Attack a Bengals run defense that ranks 22nd by DVOA.

The biggest concern here is Joe Burrow’s strong matchup against the Browns, but there may be a hidden factor that’s being overlooked here. Burrow’s 1.2% turnover-worthy play rate (TWP%) is almost one-half percent below the lowest TWP% since the league expanded to 17 games among QBs with at least 255 dropbacks in a season, and the lowest since Matt Ryan in 2017.

We should expect Burrow’s TWP% to likely increase, maybe even this week. The Browns have a pass defended rate that’s 12.6% higher in relative terms than league average. While Cleveland only has one interception this season, it’s unlucky to not have more. The current league average 17% of all passes defended resulting in an INT, and the Browns sit at just 3.8%, which is unsustainably low.

Forty-two is the least key number in this range, but 41 and 40 are important. My schedule-adjusted Expected Scores show value on the under, so we should lock in the 42 now.

Verdict: Under 42