MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, preview for Thursday, Oct. 17

Yankees vs. Guardians Game 3

RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs LHP Matthew Boyd (CLE)

Progressive Field played differently in 2024 than in years past after the club renovated the upper deck over the offseason and incidentally created a wind tunnel out toward right field.

From 2021-2023, Progressive Field had a 94 run-scoring factor (the league average is 100), a 96 run-scoring factor for left-handed hitters, and a 93 factor for left-handed home runs, compared to marks of 104, 106, and 117 in 2024.

Cool fall temperatures (56 degrees at first pitch) and a light breeze blowing in from left field should reduce the run-scoring environment in Cleveland on Thursday compared to a typical night.

Both starting pitchers also put the opposing offense in their lesser split.

Cleveland’s offense ranked 20th against righties on the season (95 wRC+) and 27th in the second half (88) compared to 8th (114) and 11th (108) against lefties. The Yankees had MLB’s best offense against right-handed pitching (120 wRC+) but dropped to 10th against lefties (107), although it’s worth noting that they improved against lefties (113 wRC+, 7th) in the second half.

At Progressive Field — and Yankee Stadium (119 Home Run Factor for left-handed hitters over the past three seasons), too, for that matter — Matthew Boyd (3.10 xERA, 19.9% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 4.38 botERA) at least forces the opposing offense to pull toward the less dangerous part of the ballpark (Progressive Field is 29th, -23% over the past three seasons for right-handed homers).

Boyd pitched well in a limited regular-season sample following Tommy John surgery — and in both playoff starts against the Tigers (combined 6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 10 K) despite being given an extremely short leash, particularly in Game 5 (33 total pitches).

The Yankees faced Boyd in August (5 1/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 2 K), with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto taking him for back-to-back homers in the first inning.

I expect a relatively limited role for Boyd in Game 3, with the Guardians down 2-0. His outs prop isn’t up yet, but Boyd’s strikeout prop is only 3.5 (-140 to the Under).

After using the entirety of their bullpen behind Boyd in Game 5 of the ALDS, the Guardians only used Erik Sabrowski and Pedro Avila on back-to-backs at Yankee Stadium. I’d expect aggressive bullpen deployment from Stephen Vogt — including potentially two innings from Emmanuel Clase in a tight contest — for Cleveland to grind their way back into this series.

Clarke Schmidt (3.75 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.93 botERA) has the most minor name recognition among the Yankees’ starting pitchers. Still, his underlying indicators are comparable to — or surpass — those of potential AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil (3.83 xERA, 14.8% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.24 botERA), and it’s telling that the Yankees have picked Schmidt to start both instead of and now ahead of Gil (who will go in Game 4) in consecutive playoff series.

Schmidt was relatively sharp in Game 3 of the ALDS (4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 30% CSW%), and Aaron Boone tried to let him pitch through a two-out, fifth-inning jam, but Schmidt left after permitting a game-tying triple.

The Yankees used three high-leverage arms (Luke Weaver, Tim Hill, Clay Holmes) on back-to-back days in Games 1 and 2, but they likely would throw any of those pitchers again with a lead in Game 3 after a day of rest on Wednesday. Their middle relievers are well-rested and Marcus Stroman is a long relief option.

As a result, I’d lean toward Under 14.5 Outs (-105) and 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) for Schmidt since the Yankees can optimize their pitching staff to cover nine innings in this contest.

The Yankees’ bullpen has carried a hot September (2nd in xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 8th in Stuff+, 22nd in botERA) into the playoffs, while the Guardians’ relievers—who are better on paper—may be getting worn down after extended usage covering for their thin starting staff.

I set the Game 3 total at 6.27 runs and would bet the under to 6.5 (+100). 

I projected the Guardians as -107 favorites for Game 3 and would bet their moneyline to +100.

Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4

RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs LHP Jose Quintana (NYM)

Can Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA, 4.49 xERA, 10.0% K-BB%, 93 Pitching+, 5.20 botERA) get the Dodgers to chase in Game 4?

The southpaw has the lowest zone rate (33.7%) among 241 starting pitchers, but the Dodgers have the third-lowest chase rate (29.1%) in MLB (the Yankees are first at 27.9%) as a team.

Quintana only faced the Dodgers once this season (6 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K on May 28), but current Dodgers hitters have a .849 OPS against him in more than 170 plate appearances. And lefties like Freddie Freeman (1.013 OPS) and Max Muncy (1.017) haven’t been neutralized by this same-sided matchup.

Quintana benefitted from an underrated defense behind him; he pitched to a career-best .263 BABIP (.303 career) and a 78.2% strand rate (73.6% career) in his age-35 season. While his 2024 ERA matches his career mark (3.74), the underlying indicators suggest that Quintana’s profile is on the verge of total collapse.

Regardless of the head-to-head numbers, the Mets may want Quintana (career 3.43 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.08 vs. righties) to face the Dodgers’ lefties a third time unless David Peterson (career 2.88 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.20 vs. righties) comes in behind him.

Assuming Quintana has a normal workload, I like the Over on his 2.5 walks prop (+125) in a difficult matchup against an offense that refuses to chase.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.44 xERA, 22.6% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+, 3.64 botERA) looked dominant in Game 5 against the Padres (5 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 19% CSW%) after a rocky Game 1. The righty faced the Mets in April (6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 9 K) before missing a big chunk of his rookie season with a shoulder injury.

His velocity increased in Game 5 (96.7 mph) relative to Game 1 (95.8 mph) — perhaps Yamamoto dialed things up knowing he’d only go five innings at most. Still, I think Yamamoto’s outs prop is short for Game 4 (Over 13.5, +100); I would have taken plus money on Over 14.5.

Both teams are in their lesser offensive split for Thursday. Chilly temperatures (52 degrees at first pitch) and 8 mph winds blowing in from left-center field should further reduce the run-scoring environment at Citi Field for Game 4.

I projected the Mets as +123 underdogs for Game 4 and would bet their moneyline to +128.

I set the total at 6.99 runs and would bet an under to 7.5 (-115).

Zerillo’s MLB Predictions & Picks for Thursday, Oct. 17

• Clarke Schmidt, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125, 0.1u) at Caesars
• Cleveland Guardians (+106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
• Jose Quintana, Over 2.5 Walks (+129, 0.1u) at Caesars
• New York Yankees / Cleveland Guardians, Under 7 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 6.5, +100)
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Over 13.5 Outs (+100, 0.1u) at DraftKings