Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints predictions, odds, preview: NFL Picks for 'Thursday Night Football'

• Broncos vs. Saints spread: Broncos -2.5
• Broncos vs. Saints over/under: 37 points
• Broncos vs. Saints moneyline: Broncos -145, Saints +120
• Broncos vs. Saints pick: Under 37.5

My Saints vs. Broncos best bet is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.

Spread

As of Wednesday afternoon, I projected the spread for this game as Broncos -1. Despite New Orleans getting an extra 1.5 points, I’m not betting the spread for this game.

Moneyline

Likewise, I’m not betting on either team’s moneyline.

Over/Under

The Saints offense could struggle mightily here due to injuries at quarterback, along the offensive line and with their top two wide receivers likely out. They’re up against a Broncos defense that should generate plenty of pressure on rookie Spencer Rattler, making it difficult for the Saints to put up points. With New Orleans likely struggling to score, the Broncos should be able to lean on a very run-heavy, conservative game plan that will keep the clock moving.

Neither offense is particularly explosive. All nine of the Broncos’ offensive touchdowns this season have come in the red zone, and the Saints rank second-worst in the league in plays that have gone for 20 or more yards, a number that could dip further without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

Even though 37.5 is a low total, this matchup sets up well for a low-scoring game that should stay under. ESPN BET was the only sportsbook still posting 37.5 as of Wednesday night at 11:30 p.m. ET.

I would also bet the under at 37, which is what most sportsbooks are posting.

My pick: Under 37.5

Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints NFL 'Thursday Night Football' Preview

When the Broncos Have the Ball

Bo Nix had a rough start to his rookie season, posting a rate of -0.37 EPA per dropback over his first four games. However, he’s shown significant improvement over his last two, averaging a +0.06.

While this progress is encouraging, the Broncos are likely to lean heavily on their run game this week against a Saints defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the pass but 26th against the run.

Adding to the challenge for Nix, starting center Luke Wattenberg suffered an ankle injury in Week 5 and is now on injured reserve. Wattenberg had allowed four pressures on 199 pass-blocking snaps this season while replacement Alex Forsyth has already allowed four on just 47 pass-blocking snaps. Nix’s efficiency has dropped significantly under pressure (+0.01 EPA per dropback against no pressure and -0.72 EPA against pressure), so Wattenberg’s absence could be a key factor in the Broncos’ offensive game plan.

The Saints’ run defense has struggled all season, allowing a league-high 2.6 yards before contact. This has led to big performances from opposing running backs, including Bucky Irving (14/81/1) and Sean Tucker (14/136/1) last week and Kareem Hunt (27/102/1) the week prior.

While both Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield threw for over 320 yards against New Orleans, that kind of game isn’t in Nix’s typical range of outcomes. I expect Sean Payton to exploit the Saints’ run defense and lean on Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime and even Nix’s legs.

With multiple injuries impacting the Saints offense, the Broncos should be able to execute an ultra-conservative, run-heavy game plan on "Thursday Night Football."

When the Saints Have the Ball

The Saints offense is completely decimated heading into Thursday Night Football.

Derek Carr is expected to miss his second straight game, and the offensive line could be without center Lucas Patrick and guard Cesar Ruiz, while Erik McCoy and Shane Lemieux remain on injured reserve. Spencer Rattler will draw another start but will be without wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, leaving him with Mason Tipton, Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson as his primary targets. To make matters worse, Rattler will be facing one of the toughest defenses in the league in the Broncos.

While Denver may be without shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II (concussion), its defense still has plenty of talent to stifle this depleted Saints offense. The Broncos have generated the second-highest pressure rate in the league, and Rattler struggled mightily under pressure last week with -0.74 EPA per dropback. He also took a sack on 28% of his dropbacks, a stat that tends to stick and is often more within the quarterback’s control. Given the Saints’ banged-up offensive line, we could see the Broncos rack up sacks and make this a particularly rough matchup for Rattler.

Zach Allen seems like the best bet to record a sack here (over 0.25 sacks, -115 at DraftKings). He has generated 31 pressures this season (third-most in the league), with 30 of those coming from the interior — that’s nine more than the next closest pass rusher. Allen has been unlucky to have only 3.5 sacks this year and should be able to take advantage of a depleted Saints offensive line and a rookie QB who has been sacked on 28% of his pressures. I’m projecting his fair odds closer to -135 to record a sack, making the -115 at DraftKings worth a sprinkle.

Shaheed be missed as a receiver and return man. His 31.0 yards per kickoff return rank eighth, and his 15.9 yards per punt return rank fifth. The Saints’ average starting field position could take a hit with him sidelined, further compounding their offensive issues.

Pick: Under 37.5

Betting Trends

• 59% of bets and 35% of the money are on the Saints to cover the spread.
• 88% of bets and 77% of the money are on the over.
• 48% of bets and 56% of the money on the moneyline are on the Broncos.

How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming

Saints vs. Broncos is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Thursday night. The game is broadcast and streamed live by Prime Video.