NFL Insider Picks Lions to Beat Spread vs Vikings… and That’s a Good Thing

The Minnesota Vikings come into their Week 7 matchup against the Detroit Lions as slight favorites. They bring a 5-0 record out of their bye, after a win over the New York Jets in week 5. Now, they are back home looking to keep the good times rolling.

The Minnesota Vikings are perfect in the win column. Even more impressive, they are the only team in football that has yet to lose against the spread. That isn’t stopping The Athletic’s Vic Tafur from picking against them this weekend, against a -2.5 point spread (line has now moved to -2).

NFL insider picks against the Minnesota Vikings… thank god

Normally, an NFL insider or betting expert picking against your team is not considered a good thing. But in Vic’s case, history tells us this pick may actually bode well toward Minnesota’s chances this weekend.

Why? Well, the Vikings may be undefeated against the spread. Tafur, however, is FAR from perfect. Also listed in his article at The Athletic is the NFL insider’s 2024 record vs the spread, which is 34-56-2 (9-19-2 on best bets).

“Jared Goff has been on fire of late. His EPA per dropback (0.68), passer rating (157.5), completion percentage (83.7), yards per attempt (14.1) and first downs per attempt (55.8 percent) are all tops in the league since Week 4. And while Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to throw blitzes and exotic coverages at quarterbacks, Goff has completed 71 percent of his passes (at 12 yards an attempt) against blitzes this season.”

Vic Tafur on picking the Lions (The Athletic)

Tafur does note that the Vikings offensive line gets a significant boost in not having to deal with Aidan Hutchinson, who’s leg snapped in a brutal injury last week. The Detroit defense is terrible against the pass, which gives Sam Darnold an opportunity to breathe life back into his MVP case.

If the Vikings are going to air it out, given their running back situation is in flux, Justin Jefferson may be in line for a big day. With or without Hutchinson, the Lions are no joke on defense. And their offense may be even more impressive. But now that we’ve seen Vic’s picks for this week, we can all rest easy leading up to Sunday.

Vikings vs Lions has everyone excited this week

This is just the second NFC North matchup on the Vikings schedule this season. They have been given ample time to prepare, coming off the bye week. Unfortunately, they aren’t as healthy as they’d hope, after a week of rest. Home field advantage should be a significant benefactor in this game, too.